锌产业周报-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Likely Factors: Global zinc plate supply shortage and continuous reduction of LME inventory support zinc prices. The pattern of tight supply overseas and loose supply in China continues due to low overseas inventory and production cut expectations [3]. - Negative Factors: Domestic zinc ore supply is abundant, refinery profits are restored, and refined zinc production increases month - on - month. Short - selling funds dominate the market, with long - position holders withdrawing, and market sentiment is moderately weak [3]. - View: In the short term, the game between long and short positions intensifies. The Shanghai zinc price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized Sheet Coil: Information on the market sentiment index (weekly), inventory seasonality, and steel mill weekly production seasonality is presented, sourced from Wind [5]. - Net Exports and Imports: Data on the seasonal net exports of galvanized sheets (strips) and die - cast zinc alloys, as well as the seasonal net exports of color - coated sheets (strips) and zinc oxide, are provided, sourced from Wind [6][19]. - Real Estate: Information on real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year changes, as well as land transaction area and housing transaction volume seasonality, is shown, sourced from Wind [11][13][15]. - Infrastructure: Data on the cumulative year - on - year changes in infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion are provided, sourced from Wind [16][17]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Contracts: Information on the trading volume, open interest, and closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract, as well as the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, is presented, sourced from Wind [20][21][22]. - LME Structure: Data on the LME term structure, including the premium and discount of LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15, and their seasonality, are provided, sourced from Wind [23][24][25]. - Price Trends: Information on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations, and the seasonality of the Tianjin zinc ingot basis are shown, sourced from Wind [27][28][29]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Raw Material Supply: Data on the seasonal monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, and the raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates are provided, sourced from Wind [31][32][36]. - Production and Profit: Information on the seasonal monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, the production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, and the seasonal sum of China's monthly zinc ingot production and imports are presented, sourced from Wind [34][35]. - Inventory: Data on the seasonal total inventory of LME zinc, the seasonal inventory of SHFE zinc this week, and the exchange zinc ingot inventory are provided, sourced from Wind [36][37][38].