《能源化工》日报-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea: High inventory pressure on the supply side persists, compound fertilizer production weakens during the off - season, and raw coal prices decline, limiting upward price movement. There may be local trading recoveries after price drops, but the price center still faces downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in domestic summer fertilizer preparation [1]. - PVC and caustic soda: For caustic soda, there is a marginal improvement in supply - demand with inventory reduction, and 5 - 9 positive spread opportunities are worth noting. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent during the maintenance period, but the long - term oversupply problem is difficult to improve, and short - term cautious operation is recommended [24][25]. - Polyester industry chain: Under the background of US tariff policies, terminal demand is significantly negative. PX has a regression expectation in supply, but there may be unplanned maintenance. Each product in the industry chain has different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading strategies [29]. - Crude oil: The international oil price is affected by demand concerns and geopolitical factors. The short - term signal is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see. Given the price fluctuation ranges for WTI, Brent, and SC [33]. - Polyolefins: For LLDPE, the supply - demand pressure is high in April, and the impact of China's tariff countermeasures is limited. For PP, the short - term supply is impacted by the propane tariff, and the long - term downstream demand is negative [40]. - Styrene: Crude oil is under pressure in the medium - term, and the pure benzene market is weak. Styrene is in a seasonal de - stocking stage, but the demand may face negative feedback in the medium - term. It is recommended to short at high levels [45]. Summary by Directory Urea - Futures prices: On April 18, compared with April 17, the prices of 01, 05, 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with the methanol main contract rising by 1.25% [1]. - Futures contract spreads: The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 contracts and UR - MA main contract changed, with the 01 - 05 contract spread rising by 12.00% [1]. - Main positions: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions rising by 8.20% and the short positions rising by 8.50%. The single - sided trading volume increased by 46.62% [1]. - Upstream raw materials: Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, with the price of动力煤港口(秦皇岛) dropping by 0.74% [1]. - Spot market prices: Some spot market prices declined, such as the price of山东(小颗粒) dropping by 1.07% [1]. - Supply - demand situation: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea decreased, the plant - level inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and futures prices: The prices of some caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of山东32%液碱折百价 increased by 62.5, and the price of华东电石法PVC市场价 remained unchanged [24]. - Overseas quotes and export profits: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC and their export profits changed. For example, the FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 10.0 [24]. - Supply and demand: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate remained stable. The downstream operating rates of both decreased [24][25]. - Inventory: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC decreased to varying degrees [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Product prices: The prices of downstream polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the POY150/48 price decreased by 0.2%, and the Brent crude oil (June) price remained unchanged [29]. - PX - related: The prices and spreads of PX changed. The domestic PX device maintenance is concentrated in April, and the supply has a regression expectation [29]. - PTA - related: The PTA price, processing fee, and operating rate changed. The PTA supply - demand pattern is tight in April [29]. - MEG - related: The MEG price, inventory, and operating rate changed. The MEG inventory de - stocking amplitude narrowed in April [29]. Crude Oil - Prices and spreads: On April 21, compared with April 17, Brent and WTI prices decreased, while SC prices increased. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [33]. - Product prices and spreads: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and their spreads changed [33]. - Cracking spreads: The cracking spreads of refined oil products in different regions changed, with the US diesel cracking spread rising by 9.52% [33]. Polyolefins - Prices and spreads: The prices of L2505, L2509, PP2505, PP2509 contracts and spot prices of some products changed. For example, the L2505 closing price increased by 0.11% [36]. - Operating rates and inventories: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of PE and PP also changed [38][39][40]. Styrene - Upstream prices: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. remained stable, and the pure benzene import profit decreased [42]. - Spot and futures prices: The styrene spot price decreased by 0.4%, and the EB2505 and EB2506 futures prices increased [43]. - Overseas quotes and import profits: The overseas quotes of styrene remained unchanged, and the import profit increased [44]. - Industry chain operating rates and profits: The operating rates of some products in the styrene industry chain changed, and the profits of styrene and related products also changed [45].