花旗：ASML-因关税不确定性下调预期，目前客户计划稳定

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML Holding NV is "Buy" with a target price of €860, lowered from €930, indicating an expected share price return of 49.8% and a total return of 51.0% [4][6]. Core Insights - ASML maintains its revenue guidance for 2025 in the range of €30-35 billion, with a slight reduction in estimates due to tariff uncertainties, now forecasting €32.5 billion, which is 3% lower than previous estimates [2][11]. - The company anticipates strong growth dynamics in 2025, primarily driven by advanced logic demand for 2nm technology, despite potential push-outs due to tariffs [2][11]. - For 2026, ASML expects an increase in orders, with a backlog estimated at approximately €13 billion, representing 45-50% of projected system revenue [3][13]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Estimates - 2025 revenue is now estimated at €32.5 billion, with gross margins adjusted to 52.1% [2][11]. - 2026 revenue is projected at €36.1 billion, reflecting a growth forecast of 11% [13][14]. - Diluted EPS for 2025 is revised to €23.72, down from €25.17, while 2026 EPS is expected to be €26.80 [14]. Valuation - ASML shares are currently trading at a P/E ratio of 23x for 2025 and 21x for 2026, which is considered historically attractive [4][22]. - The valuation approach uses a PEG ratio of approximately 1.6x based on FY26 earnings, aligning with other high-growth stocks [23]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing uncertainty due to tariffs but expresses confidence in a resolution that could benefit ASML's unique position in the lithography market [1][4]. - The demand for AI and semiconductor manufacturing is expected to drive growth, with ASML positioned to capitalize on these trends [22].