瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia is expected to decrease slightly, which will reduce the impact on rubber tapping. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline last week, with reduced arrivals at the port and lower inventory levels in both bonded and general trade. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week, with the utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises weakening and that of all - steel tire enterprises increasing slightly. The report suggests trading the ru2509 contract in the range of 14,500 - 15,200 yuan/ton and the nr2506 contract in the range of 12,200 - 12,900 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,795 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,655 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 55 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 1,127 lots to 143,798 lots, while that of the main 20 - number rubber contract increased by 164 lots to 63,611 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber increased by 5,583 to - 20,885, and that of 20 - number rubber decreased by 930 to - 1,480. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 40 tons to 201,190 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber increased by 1,008 tons to 77,919 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 16,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai STR20 was 1,740 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,740 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 140 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,543 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 93 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 65.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.11 Thai baht; the price of rubber sheets was 58.01 Thai baht/kg, up 1.79 Thai baht; the price of glue was 55.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the price of cup rubber was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 2 US dollars/ton, down 109 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 149,200 tons, up 9,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 262,300 tons, down 89,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.43%, down 0.72 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.44%, down 0.08 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 42.36 days, up 0.4 days; that of semi - steel tires was 45.4 days, up 1.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million, up 3.09 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million, up 11.56 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 34.85%, up 0.92 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 26.46%, up 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.54%, down 0.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.53%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of April 20 - 26, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping is expected to weaken. As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.20%, down 0.19 percentage points month - on - month and 6.67 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 67.44%, up 0.23 percentage points month - on - month and down 3.62 percentage points year - on - year. As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.08%. The bonded area inventory was 80,600 tons, a decline of 1.22%; the general trade inventory was 531,900 tons, a decline of 1.06%. The natural rubber producing areas around the world are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, the raw material output is limited and the purchase price is firm; in Hainan, large - scale tapping is expected to start this week [2]