集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20250421

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Monday's freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing down 2.12% and far - month contracts down between 1 - 3%. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war dampens foreign trade demand and restricts freight rates. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index is 1508.44, up 106.09 points from last week, a 7.6% week - on - week increase. The panic - hedging sentiment caused by Sino - US tariff hikes may dominate the market in the short term, increasing the volatility of the freight index (European line) futures. In the medium to long term, it depends on global economic resilience and the export substitution effect. If Sino - European trade volume increases or the US tariff rate on Europe is better than expected, far - month futures prices may perform better than near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and closely monitor US policies towards Europe and Sino - European foreign trade data [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - Futures Prices: The EC main contract closed at 1522.000, down 33.0; the EC sub - main contract closed at 1712.8, up 44.10. The EC2506 - EC2508 spread was - 190.80, down 70.00; the EC2506 - EC2510 spread was 210.90, down 22.40. The EC contract basis was - 13.56, up 117.09. The main contract's open interest was 37752 lots, down 37 [1]. - Spot Indices: SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1508.44, up 106.09; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1368.41, down 219.43. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1370.58, down 24.10. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1110.94, up 3.66; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1486.14, down 9.31. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1261.00, down 20.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1273.00, down 35.00 [1]. - Charter Rates: The average charter price for Panamax ships was 11777.00, up 119.00; for Cape - size ships was 12059.00, down 218.00 [1]. Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office announced the final measures of the 301 investigation into China's logistics, maritime and shipbuilding sectors. China's Ministry of Commerce and industry associations urged the US to correct its wrong practices, stating that the US measures are unilateral, protectionist, discriminatory, and violate WTO rules [1]. - A German economic research institute's report shows that in the next four years, US "reciprocal tariff" measures may cause Germany to lose 290 billion euros and the EU to lose 1.1 trillion euros, bringing global trade war risks and negative impacts on the global economy [1].