建信期货工业硅日报-20250422

Report Information - Report Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon futures market is in a weak position with the main contract price breaking through support levels. The spot price continues to decline slightly. The market is mainly driven by its commodity attributes due to low macro - policy attention. The fundamentals have remained weak since early April, with high supply, decreasing demand, and high inventory. The imbalance between supply and demand has not reversed, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term without room for a rebound [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures (Si2505) closed at 9,785 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume was 122,687 lots, and the open interest was 220,162 lots, with a net decrease of 9,139 lots [4] 3.2. Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline slightly. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,850 yuan/ton, 10,350 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 10,400 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 10,900 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] 3.3. Market Outlook - Since the end of March, the industrial silicon market has been mainly driven by its commodity attributes. From early April to now, the fundamentals have remained weak. The minimum weekly output for supply - demand balance should be 63,000 tons, but the current weekly output is around 72,000 tons. The monthly demand is decreasing, with polysilicon production stable but most enterprises reducing production, and organic silicon enterprises collectively cutting production to support prices, resulting in monthly demand shrinking to about 100,000 tons. High inventory is also a major factor suppressing the rebound. As of the third week of April, the inventory was 756,455 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased to 2.44. The imbalance between supply and demand has not significantly reversed, and improvement depends on the negative feedback of losses on the supply side. The decline in spot prices has opened up downward space for the futures market, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] 3.4. Market News - On April 21, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 70,215 lots, a net decrease of 146 lots from the previous trading day. In the third week of April, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,030 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. The inventory in the third week of April was 407,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 116.28% [6]