Report Overview - Report Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs stabilized and rebounded last week, but most production areas stopped rising over the weekend, with some showing a downward trend. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the strong spot market has lasted for two weeks, and adjustment is needed to digest downstream acceptance of high prices. With the upcoming May Day holiday, the adjustment space of the spot market may be limited. However, after May Day, the market will gradually enter the off - season. Given the large pressure of newly - laid hens, there is no need to be overly optimistic about the upcoming rainy season. [8] - In the futures market, the previous rise in the spot price drove the futures to rebound. After the spot price stopped rising over the weekend, the futures also showed concerns. The main contract has switched to 06. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of the rainy season, it will enter the delivery month with a very high premium. If the spot price cannot continue to rise in the short term, the futures may experience a certain correction. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the main contract and sell out - of - the - money call options. The lower support level needs to be determined based on the stocking intensity for May Day. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - The egg futures contracts 2505, 2506, and 2507 all declined. The 2505 contract fell 0.31% to 3216, with a trading volume of 15,299 and an open interest of 27,020 (a decrease of 3,975). The 2506 contract dropped 0.55% to 3047, with a trading volume of 201,264 and an open interest of 177,689 (an increase of 5,070). The 2507 contract declined 1.23% to 3129, with a trading volume of 54,267 and an open interest of 93,933 (an increase of 8,154). [7] - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.53 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.70 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous day. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Take a bearish view on the main contract and sell out - of - the - money call options. Determine the lower support level based on the stocking intensity for May Day. [8] 3.2 Industry News - In - production Laying Hens Inventory: As of the end of March, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.318 billion, an increase of 0.9% from the end of February (1.306 billion) and 6.9% from the same period last year (1.233 billion). It has increased for three consecutive months. [9] - Chick Hatchlings: In March, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.33 million, an increase from 45.64 million in February and also higher than the 45.04 million in the same period in 2024. It is at a medium - level monthly replenishment volume in the past seven years. [9] - Chicken Culling: In the three weeks leading up to March 21, the national chicken culling volumes were 16.78 million, 15.85 million, and 16.23 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with an absolute value slightly higher than the previous two years. As of March 20, the average culling age was 538 days, unchanged from last week and two days later than last month. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 05 contract, the basis of the egg 05 contract, and the spread between the egg 05 and 06 contracts. The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen. [16][17][20]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250422
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-22 02:55