建信期货铜期货日报-20250422

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market increased in volume and price, with the price difference on the trading board widening to over 100 yuan, and the spot premium expanding to 175 yuan. The main reason is that domestic copper inventories decreased by 36,900 tons over the weekend, the arrival of goods in the spot market was low, but downstream consumption was fair. The tight spot market drove the price difference between futures and spot to widen. At the same time, the supply of domestic scrap copper is also decreasing, and Sino - US trade tensions are affecting China's scrap copper imports. In March, scrap copper imports decreased by 13% year - on - year, and subsequent imports of scrap copper are expected to continue to decline. Part of the scrap copper consumption will shift to refined copper. Coupled with the transfer of global copper supplies to the COMEX market, the decrease in the supplement of imported refined copper in China will continue to drive domestic inventories to decline, and the domestic spot market will support copper prices. - On the macro - front, after Trump repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, hedge funds are selling the US dollar on a large scale, and the US dollar index has started a new round of decline, which is positive for base metals. It is expected that copper prices will rise further [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market increased in volume and price, with the price difference on the trading board widening to over 100 yuan, and the spot premium expanding to 175 yuan. The main reasons include significant weekend inventory reduction, low arrival of goods in the spot market, good downstream consumption, decreasing scrap copper supply, and the transfer of global copper supplies to the COMEX market. The weakening US dollar also supports copper prices, and it is expected that copper prices will rise further [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Forest Service will approve a controversial land swap required for Rio Tinto and BHP to build a copper mine in Arizona. The agency will re - issue the environmental report for the Resolution copper mine project land swap within 60 days and may suspend the land swap if the US Supreme Court agrees to hear a related long - term case [10]. - Sinomine Resource Group plans to start copper production at its Kitumba copper mine in Zambia's Central Province in September 2026. The company plans to invest $560 million in the project and has started the stripping work [10]. - Citi has moderated its short - term bearish view on copper prices, raising its three - month price target to $8,800 per ton from the previous $8,000 per ton. It believes that the "downside risk" in the next three months will be reduced, but its medium - term bearish view remains unchanged due to US tariff policies affecting physical copper consumption and manufacturing activities. Citi estimates the average copper price in this quarter to be $9,000 per ton [10][11].