建信期货集运指数日报-20250422

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The expectation of price increase in May for spot goods is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically the same as those at the end of April. The demand on the US route has dropped significantly due to high tariffs and port - calling fees, and airlines may disperse ships to other routes, increasing supply pressure and making price increases more difficult. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible oversold rebound caused by the easing of Sino - US frictions, and the risk of decline in far - month contracts may be greater [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The expectation of price increase in May is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically flat with those at the end of April. The large container quotes are mostly between $1900 - 2200, HPL quotes are higher, and it plans to further raise quotes for the second half of May. But there is no collective price - supporting action from shipping alliances yet. - Supply side: High US tariffs and port - calling fees on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries have led to a significant drop in demand and freight rates on the US route. Airlines' dispersion of ships to other routes may increase supply pressure and make price increases more difficult. - Suggestion: Pay attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino - US frictions in the short term. The decline risk of far - month contracts may be greater [8] 2. Industry News - From April 14th to 18th, the Chinese export container shipping market was basically stable, with the comprehensive index slightly decreasing. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The market expects the "tariff war" to put pressure on Q2 trade and economy. - On April 18th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1370.58 points, down 1.7% from the previous period. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The European shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates slightly falling. The Mediterranean shipping market was slightly stronger, with spot booking prices rising slightly. - The WTO adjusted the forecast of global merchandise trade volume from a 2.7% increase at the beginning of the year to a 0.2% decline. The US - China shipping market saw a decline in cargo volume, and the freight rate on the US - West route decreased slightly. - Discussions on a Gaza cease - fire agreement are close to completion. The US government plans to charge additional fees on Chinese ships docking in US ports. Maersk will adjust peak - season surcharges for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada. US President Trump said he is confident of reaching an agreement with China [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From April 14th to 21st, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 7.6% from 1402.35 to 1508.44, while the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 13.8% from 1587.84 to 1368.41 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on April 21st, including EC2504, EC2506, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][22]