大越期货玻璃早报-20250422

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner due to factors such as low production profit, weak terminal demand, and high inventory. However, considering the supply decline and seasonal factors, it may also show a low - level, slightly stronger volatile trend [2][5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily View - Glass fundamentals show low production profit, reduced cold - repair in the industry, and the operating rate and production volume have dropped to historically low levels. Deep - processing orders are lower than the same period in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and the destocking of factory inventories has slowed down [2]. - The basis of float glass is 34 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot [2]. - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 65.078 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is moving downward [2]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The short - term outlook for glass is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [2]. 2. Influence Factor Summary - Positive factors include obvious negative feedback on production profit, leading to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors are weak real - estate terminal demand, low orders for glass deep - processing enterprises, poor capital recovery in the deep - processing industry, cautious attitudes of traders and processors, and the potential drag of the upgraded Sino - US tariff conflict and macro - pessimistic sentiment [4]. 3. Main Logic and Risk Points - The main logic is that glass supply has declined to a relatively low level. Driven by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased restocking, resulting in the destocking of glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a slightly stronger volatile manner at a low level [5]. - Risk points include accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [5]. 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1130 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass is 1164 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis is 34 yuan/ton, a 19.05% decrease from the previous value [6]. 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1164 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The profitability of coal production lines has recovered, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [16]. 7. Fundamentals - Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.66%. The production line operation number is at a historical low for the same period [19]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,500 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history [21]. 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [25]. 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 65.078 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory has declined to near the five - year average [42]. 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, output growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the output growth rate is 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [43].