大越期货纯碱早报-20250422

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner. The supply of soda ash has decreased from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash in the day session was 1,340 yuan/ton, up 1.21% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; the main basis was - 41 yuan, up 20.59% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period of history. The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - soda method in East China is 74.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - soda method in North China is - 140.75 yuan/ton [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.50%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 75.56 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 41.65 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned newly added production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [22]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.58% [25]. - In the downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.85 tons, and the operating rate of 75.66% continues to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output has stabilized [28][31]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7113 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 864,400 tons, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair of float glass in the downstream of heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak. The full - scale escalation of the Sino - US tariff conflict may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].