永安期货有色早报-20250422

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report is generally optimistic about copper prices and suggests continuing to focus on positive spreads between months. For aluminum, it advises waiting and seeing on absolute prices, taking profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads, and holding positive spreads between months. For zinc, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely following macro - drivers with support at the bottom, and mid - to long - term, there are opportunities to short at high prices. For nickel, short - term prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel ratio. For stainless steel, unilateral prices are expected to be under pressure, and reverse spreads can be carried over. For lead, prices are expected to oscillate upwards next week. For tin, short - term prices are supported, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances after the third quarter. For industrial silicon, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and long - term prices are likely to oscillate widely at the bottom [1][2][3][6][8][10][12] Summary by Metal Copper - Market Situation: Tariff disturbances continued this week with a marginal dulling market reaction. Overseas, the LC spread rose to $1200, CMX inventory accumulated, and LME inventory increased slightly. Domestically, the de - stocking slope remained high, downstream orders continued, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The refined - scrap spread narrowed, and the scrap copper market was tight in both supply and demand [1] - Outlook: The domestic peak season pattern is healthy, and the report is relatively optimistic about copper prices, suggesting to continue focusing on positive spreads between months [1] Aluminum - Market Situation: Supply increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were acceptable from January to February. Profile consumption improved, the refined - scrap spread widened after price drops, downstream profits improved, and there was some restocking and export rush. Inventory is expected to decline significantly in April [1] - Outlook: Due to pessimistic demand expectations from tariff concerns, wait and see on absolute prices, take profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads, and hold positive spreads between months [1] Zinc - Market Situation: Zinc prices fluctuated widely after opening lower, affected by tariff uncertainties. Supply: Domestic TC and import TC were unchanged this week, and domestic smelting output increased slightly in April. Overseas, the Benchmark was set at $80/dry ton. Demand: Consumption was affected by tariffs, with a strong willingness to rush exports, and the premium increased significantly, but the rush is expected to be short - lived. Overseas demand was weak. Domestic social inventory decreased rapidly, and overseas visible inventory decreased with remaining cancelled warrants [2] - Outlook: Short - term prices will follow macro - drivers and fluctuate widely with support at the bottom due to low inventory. Mid - to long - term, consider shorting at high prices, but beware of over - expected infrastructure investment policies [2] Nickel - Market Situation: Pure nickel production remained high. Demand was weak overall, but the Jinchuan premium was strong. Overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. Prices fluctuated sharply due to tariff policy games [3] - Outlook: Short - term prices are under pressure due to weak fundamentals and recession sentiment. Pay attention to tariff policies from Indonesia and the narrowing opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel ratio [3] Stainless Steel - Market Situation: Production in April increased seasonally. Demand also increased seasonally. Costs: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices were under pressure. Inventory: De - stocking in Xifu slowed, and some exchange warehouse receipts expired [3] - Outlook: Fundamentals are weak, and under tariff impacts, steel mill profits are under pressure. Unilateral prices are expected to be under pressure, and reverse spreads can be carried over [3] Lead - Market Situation: Lead prices rebounded from a low level. Supply: Scrap battery recycling was weak, recyclers held goods for higher prices, and mid - stream smelters had a need for scrap batteries. Demand: Battery export orders decreased slightly, and overall demand was weak. The refined - scrap spread was 75, LME inventory increased, and SHFE inventory decreased [6] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate upwards next week. Pay attention to recyclers' price - holding behavior and smelter maintenance and production cuts [6] Tin - Market Situation: Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply: African Alphamin's mine is preparing to resume production, but the resumption time in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Processing fees at the mine end are low. Indonesian exports are normal, and MSC in Malaysia is shut down until the end of April. Demand: Solder factories recovered seasonally, and downstream replenishment was strong when prices dropped. Inventory: Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas inventory oscillated at a low level [8] - Outlook: In the short - term, pay attention to the de - stocking speed of visible inventory. In the first half of the year, fundamentals are expected to remain tight, and prices are supported. In the long - term, pay attention to supply disturbances after the third quarter and shorting opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - Market Situation: After northern production cuts, other large factories did not continue to cut production. Southwest small factories maintained stable production. Inventory increased slightly after the increase in northern production, and the de - stocking speed was not obvious, with the absolute level still high [10] - Outlook: In the short - term, supply and demand both decreased, and the market reached a tight balance. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the approaching of the cash - flow cost line [10] Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: Polysilicon production was stable this week, and upstream inventory remained at a relatively high level. In April, the peak season and rush - installation expectations began to be realized in silicon wafer production, but visible inventory de - stocking is expected to be less than expected due to downstream pessimism about post - rush prices [12] - Outlook: In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, prices are likely to oscillate widely at the bottom due to over - capacity [12]