广发期货《有色》日报-20250422

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Supply side is gradually recovering, with smelter processing fees at a low level, and the supply pressure of tin ore has been alleviated to some extent. However, the US tariff still has room for fermentation. - Demand side has great uncertainty, although the solder开工率 has improved under the boost of domestic policies, mainly concentrated in leading enterprises, and the order improvement of small and medium - sized enterprises is limited. - It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and take a short - selling approach on rebounds. Follow up on the production dynamics of tin mines in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - Macro - level: The impact of US tariff policies has been gradually digested, but policy uncertainty still exists. - Industry - level: The spot price of refined nickel has declined slightly, and the spot premium of various brands has mostly remained stable. The new policy on the royalty of nickel products in Indonesia is about to be implemented, which may increase the comprehensive cost of nickel mines. - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and the profit of the nickel sulfate industry needs to be repaired. - Overall, the short - term macro situation is stable, but there is still uncertainty. The cost provides support at the bottom, but the medium - term supply is loose, so it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract running between 122,000 - 128,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - Macro: The impact of US tariff policies has been digested, but there is still uncertainty. - Industry: The price of nickel ore is relatively firm, but the price of nickel iron has declined. The supply is relatively loose in the short term, domestic demand has certain resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. - Inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 12,600 - 13,000 [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The market has basically digested the previous macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals lack positive factors. - The supply pressure is obvious, although the supply increase in April is expected to slow down marginally. - Demand is generally stable, but there is a risk of a decline in energy - storage export orders due to tariff policies. - Inventory is relatively high, and the pressure may increase with the rapid registration of warehouse receipts. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 68,000 - 72,000 [6]. Zinc - Supply side: The trend of a loose ore end remains unchanged. Pay attention to the increase in TC and the expansion speed of refined zinc production. If the TC growth rate exceeds the theoretical expectation, it indicates that the looseness of the ore end is smoothly transmitted to the refined zinc end, and the overall industrial chain supply will be loose. - Demand side: After the peak season, orders and the start - up rate have weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement, with general spot trading performance. - In the context of the US equivalent tariff policy, the demand side faces certain pressure. In a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline; in an optimistic scenario, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for medium - to - long - term layout, and focus on the growth rate of zinc ore production and the rhythm of tariff policies, with the main contract paying attention to the support level of 20,500 - 21,500 [9]. Alumina - Supply side: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, but the situation of production cuts due to losses has increased recently. Coupled with the potential supply risk of the Guinea ore end, there is support for the short - term price decline. - Demand side: The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity operates at a high level, the overall demand is stable with limited growth, the export window of domestic alumina is closed, and export demand has decreased. - Overall, short - term production cuts provide short - term support for the price, but the price is close to the cost. Pay attention to the dynamic changes in cost and the supply - side changes, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Aluminum - Supply side: The electrolytic aluminum capacity operates stably, and the复产 capacity in the Sichuan - Chongqing area has fully resumed production with limited subsequent growth. - Demand side: The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has returned to normal, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances maintain a seasonally prosperous level under the boost of domestic demand policies, but the peak season is coming to an end, and there is an expectation of marginal weakening in demand. - Inventory: Both LME and domestic social inventories are decreasing, and the low inventory provides support for the price. - Overall, the short - term fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are good, but the tariff policy game suppresses the demand expectation and intensifies price fluctuations. It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running between 19,000 - 21,000 [11]. Copper - Macro: The equivalent tariff is the core variable for asset pricing. Pay attention to the progress of tariff negotiations. The US "232" investigation on copper provides certain support for copper prices before a clear result is announced. - Fundamentals: The demand side is strong, with high copper rod start - up rates and inventory reduction. However, after the implementation of the US tariff policy, there is an expectation of weakening demand. - Overall, the copper market presents a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the decline of copper prices, while the weak demand expectation restricts the upward space. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract paying attention to the pressure level of 76,000 - 77,000 [12]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1,01% to 259,700 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 13.04% to 1,000 yuan/ton. - The import loss decreased by 13.38% to - 7,068.36 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.27 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by 600.00%, 340.00%, 18.18%, and - 29.63% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, the import of tin ore decreased by 4.83% to 8,323 tons, the production of refined tin increased by 7.33% to 15,080 tons, the import volume of refined tin increased by 12.41% to 2,101 tons, and the export volume decreased by 29.50% to 1,673 tons. - The average start - up rate of SMM refined tin in March was 62.60%, an increase of 7.38% [1]. Inventory - SHEF inventory decreased by 7.77% to 9,571 tons, social inventory decreased by 10.09% to 10,485 tons, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 0.30% to 9,183 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.18% to 2,850 tons [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.31% to 126,900 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 4.26% to 2,450 yuan/ton. - The import loss of refined nickel decreased by 1.78% to - 3,469 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.01 [2]. Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1.85% and 2.47% respectively, while the cost of producing from externally - purchased raw materials mostly decreased slightly [2]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.84% to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 28,050 yuan/ton [2]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 120 yuan/ton, + 130 yuan/ton, and - 180 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons, and the import volume increased by 99.27% to 18,897 tons. - SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% to 30,594 tons, social inventory decreased by 5.87% to 43,308 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.96% to 204,528 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable or decreased slightly, and the spot - futures spread decreased by 1.85% to 530 yuan/ton [4]. Raw Material Prices - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remained unchanged at 61 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of 8 - 12% high - grade nickel pig iron decreased by 0.15% to 984 yuan/nickel point [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by + 5 yuan/ton, + 5 yuan/ton, and - 5 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42.00 million tons. - Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45% to 12.89 million tons, and exports increased by 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.33% to 55.83 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.87% to 17.65 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.84% to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 346.67% to 670 yuan/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2505 - 2512 contracts changed by 0 yuan/ton, - 80 yuan/ton, and - 220 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Fundamental Data - In March, lithium carbonate production increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons, demand increased by 15.07% to 87,002 tons, imports in February increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons. - In April, the production capacity increased by 1.52% to 133,522 tons, and the start - up rate increased by 20.00% to 54% [6]. Inventory - In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons, downstream inventory increased by 27.94% to 39,293 tons, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% to 50,777 tons [6]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.49% to 22,540 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. - The import loss decreased by 86 yuan/ton to - 173 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.57 [9]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 30 yuan/ton, + 20 yuan/ton, + 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Fundamental Data - In March, refined zinc production increased by 13.70% to 54.69 million tons, imports decreased by 15.27% to 3.37 million tons, and exports decreased by 91.04% to 0.04 million tons. - The start - up rates of galvanizing, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 64.34%, 58.39%, and 60.79% respectively. - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 11.93% to 9.30 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 2.52% to 19.5 million tons [9]. Alumina and Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.40% to 19,910 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton, while the price in Shanxi increased by 0.35% to 2,880 yuan/ton. - The import loss of aluminum decreased by 25.6 yuan/ton to - 1,059 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.30. - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 10 yuan/ton, - 5 yuan/ton, + 5 yuan/ton, and + 10 yuan/ton respectively [11]. Fundamental Data - In March, alumina production increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 11.22% to 371.42 million tons. - The start - up rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates, and strips were 58.50%, 63.60%, 68.00%, and 73.00% respectively [11]. Inventory - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 7.04% to 67.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.65% to 43.4 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31% to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 45 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap copper price difference increased by 50.76% to 1,273 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 118.72 yuan/ton to - 206 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.34 [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2507 - 2508 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 90 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Fundamental Data - In March, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons, and imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. - The start - up rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 3.31% to 78.07%, and the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production decreased by 1.06% to 29.82%. - Domestic social inventory decreased by 21.56% to 19.65 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 6.19% to 17.16 million tons [12