沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250423

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market continues to rebound. In the industrial chain, stainless steel is weak. After the price of ferronickel drops, the cost line decreases. Exchange warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market, potentially increasing supply. The new energy industry chain data is good, with positive medium - term expectations. In the long - term, the refined nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, inventory is increasing (negative factor), the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is downward (neutral), and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. Conclusion: Shanghai Nickel 2505 will move in a range [3]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel is decreasing. In the short term, the price of nickel ore remains firm, the supply of Indonesian ore is still short, the price of ferronickel has dropped, and the cost line has also decreased. Stainless steel inventory has slightly increased, and exchange warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market. The basis is positive, the futures warehouse receipts are decreasing (negative factor), and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward. Conclusion: Stainless Steel 2506 will move weakly in a range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices: On April 22, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 125,570 (down 360 from the previous day), the LME Nickel was 15,790 (up 45), the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,690 (down 100). Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,700 (down 200), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 127,750 (down 300), 1 imported nickel was 125,650 (down 100), and nickel beans were 125,050 (down 100). For stainless steel cold - rolled coils, prices in different regions also showed a downward trend [13]. 3.2 Inventory - Nickel Inventory: As of April 18, the SHFE nickel inventory was 30,332 tons, with futures inventory at 25,091 tons (a decrease of 262 tons and an increase of 627 tons respectively). On April 22, LME nickel inventory was 206,430 (up 1902), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 25,384 (up 64), and the total inventory was 231,814 (up 1966) [15][16]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On April 18, the inventory in Wuxi was 647,200 tons, in Foshan was 338,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2300 tons). The inventory of the 300 - series was 72.29 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 7600 tons). On April 22, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 175,567 (down 918) [20][21]. 3.3 Price of Raw Materials - Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices: On April 22, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 60.5 dollars/wet ton (unchanged), and Ni0.9% was 31.5 dollars/wet ton (unchanged). The high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 976 yuan/nickel point (down 7.5), and the low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged) [24]. 3.4 Production Cost - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional cost was 13,500, the scrap steel production cost was 13,787, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 17,188 [26]. 3.5 Import Cost - Nickel Import Cost: The converted import price was 128,807 yuan/ton [29].