建信期货豆粕日报-20250423

Report Overview - Report Date: April 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The CBOT soybeans are not likely to decline significantly due to potential trade negotiations where some countries may increase purchases of US soybeans, and the expected reduction in the new - season US soybean planting area to 83.5 million acres year - on - year [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In the short term, supply is tight with low import volume in March and slow customs clearance in April, and low inventory levels. However, in the long run, supply will be sufficient as Brazilian soybeans arrive in large quantities and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - For futures, it is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: - For the Soybean Meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2910, the closing price was 2988, up 78 or 2.68% with a trading volume of 393,367 and an open interest of 337,200, a decrease of 53,643 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2507 contract, the previous settlement price was 2886, the closing price was 2910, up 24 or 0.83% with a trading volume of 202,486 and an open interest of 503,784, an increase of 11,665 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the closing price was 3054, up 11 or 0.36% with a trading volume of 1,583,221 and an open interest of 2,416,736, an increase of 17,181 [6]. - External Market: The US soybeans 05 contract on the external market was oscillating, with the main force at 1050 cents. After a rebound after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it entered a narrow - range oscillation last week due to ongoing trade negotiations [6]. - Domestic Market: Domestic soybean meal is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In March, the imported soybean volume was only 3.5 million tons, and customs clearance in April was slow. The soybean meal inventory reached a multi - year low, reflected in the price. However, supply will be sufficient in the future as Brazilian soybeans arrive and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - Futures Suggestion: It is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - USDA Reports: As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the market expectation of 7%, 2% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 5%. As of the week ending April 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 550,924 tons, within the market forecast range of 400,000 - 750,000 tons [8][9]. - Argentina's Situation: Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to be 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]