Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Macroeconomic factor: Tariffs are the core variable for asset pricing. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs. The pricing of copper in Q1 was mainly based on the expected spread of US copper import tariffs. The current spread between US and LME copper is around 10%, and the inventory trend is no longer differentiated, but the tariff factor still supports copper prices. - Fundamental factor: Demand is strong, with higher copper rod operating rates and basis, and better domestic inventory destocking. The copper ore supply remains tight. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract ranging from 76,000 to 79,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Supply side: Alumina operating capacity remains high, but recent supply - side production cuts due to losses have increased, and there are potential supply risks in Guinea's mines, which support short - term prices. - Demand side: Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is operating at a high level, with overall stable demand and limited incremental demand. The export window for domestic alumina is closed, and export demand has decreased. Currently, prices are close to costs, and marginal changes in the supply side may lead to price rebounds. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 19,000 to 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Supply side: The trend of loose zinc ore supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the increase in TC and the expansion speed of refined zinc production. If the TC growth rate exceeds the theoretical expectation, it indicates that the loose ore supply has been smoothly transmitted to the refined zinc end, and the overall industrial chain supply will be more abundant. - Demand side: After the peak season, orders and operating rates have weakened. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis, and spot transactions are average. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs, and the tariff pressure has been relatively relieved. In the future, zinc prices may move down if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies; otherwise, they may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply side: Recently, the ore end has shown some signs of loosening. Although some upstream producers have carried out maintenance and production cuts in April, overall production has increased significantly since March, and the arrival of overseas ore has also increased, resulting in clear supply pressure. The incremental supply of lithium carbonate in April is expected to slow down marginally. - Demand side: Overall demand is relatively stable, but the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. Power orders are acceptable, but the number of energy - storage export orders is at risk of decline due to tariff policies. In May and June, which are usually off - peak seasons, the pressure may be greater. Currently, the market is in a situation of clear supply - demand contradiction, with weakening support at the raw material ore end and intensified long - short capital games at low valuations. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 66,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Market sentiment: The stainless - steel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and the market was mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Spot prices were generally stable. - Supply side: Some domestic steel mills have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the stainless - steel production plan for April remains at a high level. - Demand side: Demand has certain resilience but is still slowly recovering. Household appliance consumption has a certain driving effect, and previous export orders have recovered well, but export orders to the US have stagnated due to tariffs. Downstream procurement is mainly for just - in - time needs, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Social inventory has decreased slightly, and inventory pressure has eased slightly. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - Market sentiment: The Shanghai nickel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and market sentiment was temporarily stable. - Supply side: Indonesia's new nickel product royalty policy is about to be implemented, which may increase the comprehensive cost of nickel mines. The pre - sale of Philippine nickel ore resources in May has been concentrated. - Demand side: Refined nickel spot transactions are generally average, and the spot premiums of most brands are stable. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Supply side: The processing fees of smelters are running at a low level. The import of tin ore from January to March decreased year - on - year. The earthquake in Myanmar affected the resumption of production, and the Bisie mine in Congo has resumed production, relieving the supply pressure to some extent. - Demand side: Driven by domestic policies, the operating rate of soldering tin has improved, but mainly in leading enterprises, and the order improvement of small and medium - sized enterprises is limited. In the future, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 645 yuan/ton to 77,195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.84%. The basis of various copper types also changed to varying degrees. - Fundamental data: In March, electrolytic copper production was 1.1221 million tons, up 6.04% month - on - month; imports were 308,800 tons, up 15.24% month - on - month. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 3.31 percentage points to 78.07%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 540,000 tons to 1.965 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.56% [1]. Aluminum - Price and spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 19,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum decreased by 510,000 tons to 6.73 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.04%. - Fundamental data: In March, alumina production was 7.549 million tons, up 8.85% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.3396 million tons, up 11.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum processing industries showed different changes [3]. Zinc - Price and spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,580 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. - Fundamental data: In March, refined zinc production was 546,900 tons, up 13.70% month - on - month; imports were 33,700 tons, down 15.27% month - on - month; exports were 400 tons, down 91.04% month - on - month. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by 126,000 tons to 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.93% [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 70,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.64%. - Fundamental data: In March, lithium carbonate production was 79,065 tons, up 23.44% month - on - month; demand was 87,002 tons, up 15.07% month - on - month. In April, the production capacity was 133,522 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month; the operating rate was 45%, up 20 percentage points month - on - month [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore was mostly stable, while the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/nickel point. - Fundamental data: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in 43 Chinese enterprises was 3.4401 million tons, up 11.37% month - on - month; the production in Indonesia's Qinglong was 420,000 tons, down 6.67% month - on - month. Stainless - steel exports increased by 70.98% month - on - month to 470,600 tons [10]. Nickel - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 126,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.16%. - Fundamental data: In March, China's refined nickel product production decreased by 5.69% month - on - month to 28,320 tons; imports increased by 99.27% month - on - month to 18,897 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% week - on - week to 30,594 tons [12]. Tin - Price and basis: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 258,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.35%. - Fundamental data: In March, tin ore imports were 8,323 tons, down 4.83% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,080 tons, up 7.33% month - on - month; imports were 2,101 tons, up 12.41% month - on - month; exports were 1,673 tons, down 29.50% month - on - month [13].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-04-23 01:47