建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250423

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: April 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Market Performance Futures Market - On April 22, the main contract 2509 of coke futures significantly declined, erasing the previous day's gains and approaching the previous low of 1517 yuan/ton set on April 9. The main contract 2509 of coking coal futures also significantly declined, hitting a new low of 924 yuan/ton for the September contract since October 2016 [5]. - The closing price of J2509 was 1530.5 yuan/ton, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 23,584 lots and an open interest of 37,180 lots, an increase of 3,784 lots, and a capital inflow of 0.87 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2509 was 928.5 yuan/ton, down 2.42%, with a trading volume of 350,052 lots and an open interest of 360,046 lots, an increase of 19,667 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.05 billion yuan [5]. Spot Market - On April 22, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1440 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1370 yuan/ton, also unchanged [8]. - The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1365 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze, it was 1320 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Pingdingshan, it was 1460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. Technical Analysis - On April 22, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract changed from a golden cross to a death cross, and the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract declined, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bars of both the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts enlarged [8]. Market Outlook Coke - Currently, downstream steel mills maintain high production, and coking plants have significantly increased production for five consecutive weeks. The obvious destocking of steel mills and coking plants is favorable, but the rising port inventory is unfavorable. Coke price rebound requires the recovery of the finished steel market. After the steel price rebounded from the low and then fluctuated weakly, it is expected that the coke market may improve following the finished steel before the end of April [9]. Coking Coal - Imports are at a high level and have increased. The domestic coal industry still emphasizes the principle of ensuring supply. Although the production and operating rate of coal washing plants are significantly lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year, the supply remains loose. The inventories of steel mills and ports have significantly decreased, but the recent active replenishment of coking plants will discount the later price rebound. Whether the decline of coking coal can stop depends on whether the coke market can truly recover [9]. Strategy - It is expected that the coke and coking coal markets will stabilize and rebound after a second bottom - finding in late April. One can try to sell put options at high prices during the price - stabilizing stage or try to buy the far - month 2509 contract for hedging or investment after the price stabilizes [9]. Industry News - The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy of Upgrading Free Trade Pilot Zones", covering data flow, shipping, finance, and other aspects [10]. - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on April 21, allocating over 13.5 billion yuan in the first batch of energy - saving and emission - reduction subsidy funds for 2025, including 2.91 billion yuan for pre - allocating the reward funds for the pilot project of filling and swapping facilities in counties in 2025 [10]. - Many companies released financial reports, including Yue Electric Power A, Yangmei Chemical Industry, TBEA, Wuchan Environmental Energy, and Shenhuo Co., Ltd., with varying revenue and profit performances [10][11] - Southern Power Grid's regional electricity consumption in the first quarter was 380.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4% [11] - Shougang Co., Ltd. and Geely Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement [12] - From January to March, Shanxi's coalbed methane production reached 3.53 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [12] - In March 2025, China's coking coal imports decreased for the fourth consecutive month, with an import volume of 8.588 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% [12] - Coal India Ltd plans to build a 1600 - megawatt coal - fired power plant in Jharkhand [12] - The US announced new tariffs on solar products imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam [13] Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron production, and the inventories of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants [14][15][16]