原木期货日报-20250423

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the log market is loose. New Zealand has lowered its offer price to $110, and the cost reduction has pulled down the market valuation to a certain extent. The overall demand is suppressed by the shrinkage of building materials and is lower than expected. The market sentiment was weak yesterday, with heavy volume decline near the cost line. Attention should be paid to the support level around 780 yuan [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all decreased on April 22 compared to April 21, with decreases of -2.28%, -1.64%, and -2.10% respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and 07, 09, 11 contract basis also changed. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports showed different trends, with some decreasing and some remaining unchanged. The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also changed slightly [2]. Supply - In March, the port throughput was 161.3 million cubic meters, a 23.05% increase compared to February. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 18.37%. From April 21 - April 27, the expected number of arriving ships of coniferous logs at 18 ports decreased by 45% week - on - week, and the expected arrival volume decreased by 28% week - on - week [2][3]. Inventory - As of April 18, the log inventory was 351 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to April 11. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3]. Demand - As of April 18, the daily average log outbound volume was 6.51 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.65 million cubic meters compared to before, and the demand decreased week - on - week [3].