《特殊商品》日报-20250423

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Market macro sentiment has improved, commodities have rebounded collectively, and the soda ash futures market has stabilized and rebounded in the past two days. However, from a fundamental perspective, production has gradually reached a high level, and the weekly production has recovered to over 750,000 tons. With the resumption of production, soda ash factories still face significant inventory pressure. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait and see in the short term [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price has been fluctuating, closing down 400 yuan/ton to 38,020 yuan/ton. After a sharp decline, the price has rebounded somewhat. The weekly production of polysilicon has slightly increased, and inventory has also risen, while silicon wafer inventory has decreased. The cost support line for polysilicon has shifted downward due to the sharp decline in industrial silicon prices. Attention should be paid to changes in production and demand [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized. The SI2505 contract first declined and then rebounded, falling 60 yuan/ton to 8,835 yuan/ton. The price is under pressure due to oversupply and continuous inventory accumulation. The downstream demand for polysilicon and organic silicon remains weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest region and further production reduction plans of other enterprises [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the phenological conditions in major domestic and overseas production areas meet the seasonal tapping conditions, and the expectation of new rubber supply is strong, which suppresses rubber prices. On the demand side, the sales of semi - steel tire enterprises have not improved significantly, and the inventory pressure has increased, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The domestic market for all - steel tires is weak, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected that rubber prices will be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the 14,000 - line support for the main contract [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: North China quoted 1,260 yuan/ton, East China 1,370 yuan/ton, Central China 1,180 yuan/ton, and South China 1,330 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 was at 1,061 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and Glass 2509 was at 1,130 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The 05 basis was 186 yuan/ton, down 6.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: North China quoted 1,500 yuan/ton, East China 1,450 yuan/ton, Central China 1,400 yuan/ton, and Northwest 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda Ash 2505 was at 1,289 yuan/ton, down 1.16%, and Soda Ash 2509 was at 1,315 yuan/ton, down 1.94%. The 05 basis was 226 yuan/ton, up 7.11% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate was 89.50%, up 1.65% from the previous period, and the weekly production was 755,600 tons, up 2.43%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 158,500 tons, unchanged, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 94,240 tons, up 2,500 tons or 2.73% [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory was 65.203 million weight boxes, down 0.19%. Soda ash factory inventory was 1.7113 million tons, up 1.08%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 402,700 tons, down 4.84%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days were 19.5 days, up 7.79% [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area decreased by 20.00% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51%, completion area increased by 5.27%, and sales area increased by 1.81% [1]. Polysilicon Prices and Spreads - The average price of N - type polysilicon was 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of P - type cauliflower polysilicon was 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material spread increased by 11.17%, and the cauliflower material basis increased by 7.87%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) decreased by 3.38%, and the average price of P - type silicon wafers (210mm) remained unchanged. The average price of single - crystal PERC battery cells and components remained unchanged [2]. - The PS2506 futures contract was at 38,020 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production was 13.57 GW, up 0.74%. The average cost of the polysilicon industry was 37.52 yuan/kg, down 4.75%. In March, polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 6.66%. In February, polysilicon imports were 29,000 tons, up 25.50%, exports were 20,000 tons, down 10.40%, and net exports were - 9,000 tons, down 1067.95%. In March, silicon wafer production was 50.76 GW, up 5.05%. In February, silicon wafer imports were 60,000 tons, down 32.03%, exports were 590,000 tons, up 28.29%, and net exports were 530,000 tons, up 42.57%. The demand for silicon wafers in February was 57.67 GW, up 39.70% [2]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory was 251,000 tons, up 2.87%, and silicon wafer inventory was 18.22 GW, down 4.86% [2]. Industrial Silicon Prices and Spreads - East China's oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon was 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 950 yuan/ton, up 6.74%. East China's SI4210 industrial silicon was 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 950 yuan/ton, up 6.74%. Xinjiang's 99 - silicon was 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 6.38%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In March, the national industrial silicon production was 342,200 tons, up 18.20%. Xinjiang's production was 210,800 tons, up 26.57%, Yunnan's was 12,300 tons, down 14.58%, and Sichuan's was 4,600 tons, up 170.59%. The national operating rate was 57.80%, up 13.29%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 78.05%, up 30.41%, Yunnan's was 19.97%, down 2.16%, and Sichuan's was 0.49%, up 53.13%. In March, the production of organic silicon DMC was 168,500 tons, down 10.32%, polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 6.66%, and the production of aluminum alloy in February was 268,000 tons, up 11.67%. In February, industrial silicon exports were 44,200 tons, down 15.82% [4]. Inventory - Xinjiang's factory inventory was 209,200 tons, down 7.72%. Yunnan's inventory was 24,000 tons, down 0.41%. Sichuan's inventory was 22,500 tons, down 0.22%. The social inventory was 611,000 tons, down 0.16%, the warehouse receipt inventory was 349,500 tons, down 0.46%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory was 261,500 tons, up 0.23% [4]. Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - Yunnan's state - owned whole - milk rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. The whole - milk basis was - 135 yuan/ton, up 54.24%. Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The non - standard price difference was - 135 yuan/ton, up 30.77%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber was 51.15 Thai baht/kg, up 1.39%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue was 56.20 Thai baht/kg, up 0.81%. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 1.63%, and the price of natural rubber glue was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 2.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, Thailand's production was 346,400 tons, down 37.99%, Indonesia's was 197,600 tons, down 0.50%, India's was 74,000 tons, down 31.48%, and China's in December was 67,400 tons, down 51.44%. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.44%, down 0.08%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.43%, down 0.72%. In March, domestic tire production was 107.446 million pieces, up 1.79%, tire exports were 62.29 million pieces, up 42.34%, natural rubber imports were 594,100 tons, up 18.07%, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 760,000 tons, up 11.76%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 12,838 yuan/ton, up 1.71%, and the production profit was - 874 yuan/ton, down 114.22% [5]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory was 619,180 tons, down 0.24%. The natural rubber factory's futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,911 tons, down 1.04%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade warehouses showed various changes [5].