大越期货菜粕早报-20250423

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 should be traded within the range of 2640 - 2700 [9]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern driven by soybean meal [8][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is affected by multiple factors. The low - level operation of rapeseed oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is gradually recovering. The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed does not pose an immediate inventory pressure on oil mills. The market is volatile and slightly stronger. The additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited as no tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports [10]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season, with a weak supply - demand situation in the spot market. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the result yet to be determined. - The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [12]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Position Concerns - Positive factors: The additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Negative factors: The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March, and the uncertain outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand balance: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - Price data: The report presents the trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 11 - 22, including transaction prices, volumes, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It also shows the futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal during the same period [14][15]. - Inventory data: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 64.64%. The import of rapeseed in April was lower than expected, the import cost fluctuated upward, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory increased, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remained low [10][27][29]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds flowed out [10].