农产品早报-20250423

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short term, corn prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation before May Day due to tight supply and weak downstream consumption. In the long term, a potential supply gap may drive prices up [3]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices will stay high due to high procurement costs. In the long term, price adjustment space is limited, and short - selling the far - month prices can be considered [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, raw sugar is under pressure due to the market's anticipation of Brazil's increased production. Domestically, the fundamentals are stronger. After July, imports are expected to increase. In the long term, raw sugar will weaken, and the profit from out - of - quota imports will cap domestic prices [4][5]. - Cotton: With Xinjiang's high yield and poor demand, the supply - demand situation is loose. Attention should be paid to domestic favorable policies, trade - war changes, and macro risks [6]. - Eggs: Although the egg price has rebounded recently, the supply pressure is still large, and the rebound space is limited [8]. - Apples: The trading in production areas has improved, the inventory is moving faster, and the price is stable. Weather during the flowering period should be monitored [11]. - Pigs: The short - term spot price is strong, but the overall idea for 09 and far - month contracts is to short on rallies. Short - term observation is recommended, and 57, 59 positive spreads may still have room [11]. Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - Price Data: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while in places like Weifang it increased by 8, and in Shekou by 20. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2]. - Analysis: Short - term corn prices are strong but lack continuous upward momentum. Starch has high short - term prices but limited long - term adjustment space [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Liuzhou remained at 6240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 771 [4]. - Analysis: International raw sugar is under pressure, while domestic sugar has stronger fundamentals. After July, imports may increase [4][5]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 80, and the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 41 [6]. - Analysis: The supply - demand of cotton is loose due to high yield and poor demand [6]. Eggs - Price Data: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Hebei remained unchanged, while in Hubei it increased by 0.06, and the basis increased by 65 [8]. - Analysis: Although the egg price has rebounded, supply pressure is large and rebound space is limited [8]. Apples - Price Data: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8200, and the national inventory increased by 29 [10][11]. - Analysis: The trading in production areas has improved, and the price is stable. Weather during the flowering period should be monitored [11]. Pigs - Price Data: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 170 [11]. - Analysis: The short - term spot price is strong, and the overall strategy for 09 and far - month contracts is to short on rallies [11].