瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250423

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to temporarily observe the main contract 2506 of industrial silicon [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand situation of industrial silicon shows low supply, reduced demand, and high - level inventory. The supply side has uncertainty as the production cuts in the northwest are counterbalanced by new capacity in the southwest, and production is expected to recover with the approaching of the wet season. The demand side remains weak in the short - term due to the slump in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8930 yuan/ton, with a change of 130 yuan; the position of the main contract is 182,521 lots, with an increase of 121,524 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 13,792 lots, with a decrease of 4007 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 69,820 lots, with a decrease of 74 lots; the spread between the May - September contracts is - 120 yuan, with an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 820 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 500 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 612,000 tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, with an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 40,200 tons, with a decrease of 300 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.58 US dollars/kg, with a decrease of 0.35 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 17,485.81 tons, with a decrease of 632.98 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 60.43%, with a decrease of 1.06%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, with an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - GCL Technology announced in January 2025 that the cash cost of granular silicon in Q4 2024 had dropped to 28.17 yuan/kg, setting a new industry low. Premier Li Qiang emphasized promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, and strengthening the domestic cycle during a research trip in Beijing, and the real estate market still has development space [2].