建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250424
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-23 23:40
- Report Information - Report Date: April 24, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Eggs [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs in the national market was stable today. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.73 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 05 contract fell 1.23%. The spot price of eggs rebounded last week, but most producing areas stopped rising over the weekend, and some showed a downward trend. After the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the strong spot market has lasted for two weeks, and it needs adjustment to digest downstream acceptance of high prices. With the upcoming May Day holiday, the adjustment space of the spot market may be limited, but after May Day, the market will gradually enter the off-season. Given the high pressure of newly-laid eggs, there is no reason to be overly optimistic during the upcoming rainy season. In the futures market, the previous rise in the spot price drove the futures to rebound, but after the spot price stopped rising over the weekend, the futures market also became cautious. The main contract has now switched to 06. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of the rainy season, it will enter the delivery month with a very high premium. If the spot price cannot continue to rise in the short term, the futures may experience a certain correction. The main contract should be treated from a bearish perspective, and out-of-the-money call options can also be sold. The strength of the support below depends on the stocking intensity for May Day [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Review: - Egg 2505 contract: The previous settlement price was 3176, the opening price was 3139, the highest price was 3146, the lowest price was 3122, the closing price was 3137, down 39 points or 1.23%. The trading volume was 9837, the open interest was 18105, a decrease of 3304 [7]. - Egg 2506 contract: The previous settlement price was 3030, the opening price was 3008, the highest price was 3043, the lowest price was 3003, the closing price was 3026, down 4 points or 0.13%. The trading volume was 129556, the open interest was 179267, a decrease of 324 [7]. - Egg 2507 contract: The previous settlement price was 3123, the opening price was 3115, the highest price was 3134, the lowest price was 3106, the closing price was 3118, down 5 points or 0.16%. The trading volume was 25381, the open interest was 98086, an increase of 1950 [7]. - Operational Suggestions: Treat the main contract from a bearish perspective and sell out-of-the-money call options. The strength of the support below depends on the stocking intensity for May Day [8]. 4.2 Industry News - As of the end of March, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.318 billion, up 0.9% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year, showing a continuous increase for three months [9]. - In March, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 46.33 million, an increase from 45.64 million in February and also an increase compared with 45.04 million in the same period in 2024, ranking at a medium level in the past seven years [9]. - In the three weeks up to March 21, the national chicken culling volumes were 16.78 million, 15.85 million, and 16.23 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, and the absolute value was slightly higher than that of the previous two years, mainly due to the continuous decline in breeding profits after the new year. As of March 20, the average age of culled chickens was 538 days, unchanged from last week and two days later than last month [9][10]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken breeding profit, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 05 contract, the basis of the egg 05 contract, and the spread between the egg 05 and 06 contracts [16][17][20].