建信期货集运指数日报-20250424

Report Overview - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report - Date: April 24, 2025 - Industry: Container Shipping - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The US releasing signs of easing tensions boosts market expectations, but the price increase in the spot market in May is insufficient. Airlines are continuing to lower their late-April quotes, and the early-May quotes are basically the same as those in late April. The market should pay short-term attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino-US frictions, while the far-month contracts may face greater downward risks [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Market Situation: The US releasing signs of easing tensions boosts market expectations, but the price increase in the spot market in May is insufficient. Airlines are continuing to lower their late-April quotes, and the early-May quotes are basically the same as those in late April. The large container quotes are mostly in the range of $1900 - 2200, while the HPL quotes are relatively high at around $3000 and are further raised to $4000 for the second half of May. However, there is no collective price support action from shipping alliances yet. On the supply side, due to high US tariffs and port fees on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries, the demand on the US route has dropped significantly, and the freight rates have declined. Airlines are diverting ships from the US route to other routes, which may increase supply pressure and make price increases more difficult [8] - Operation Suggestions: Pay short-term attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino-US frictions, while the far-month contracts may face greater downward risks [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - China's Export Container Shipping Market: From April 14th to 18th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with the composite index slightly declining. China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the national economy had a good start. However, the market expects that the "tariff war" will put some pressure on trade and the economy in the second quarter [9] - European Routes: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, the seventh rate cut since June last year. The economic growth outlook in Europe is deteriorating due to intensified trade tensions. The shipping market remained generally stable this week, with relatively stable transport demand and slightly declining market freight rates. On April 18th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1316/TEU, a 2.9% decrease from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation on the Mediterranean routes was slightly stronger than that on the European routes. The spot booking prices increased slightly this week. On April 18th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $2161/TEU, a 0.8% increase from the previous period [9] - North American Routes: The WTO adjusted its forecast for global merchandise trade volume this year from a 2.7% increase at the beginning of the year to a 0.2% decline. Trump's radical tariff policy will lead to a contraction in global trade in 2025, which will hit the North American trade the hardest. The cargo volume on the Sino-US shipping route declined this week, and the market began to adjust the overall capacity deployment. The freight rates on the US West route declined slightly. On April 18th, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $2103/FEU and $3251/FEU respectively, a 4.5% decrease and a 0.8% increase from the previous period [10] - Other News: Discussions on a ceasefire agreement in Gaza are nearing completion; the US government plans to impose additional fees on Chinese ships docking at US ports; Maersk will adjust the peak season surcharge (PSS) for routes from Far Eastern countries (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025; US President Trump expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with China [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From April 14th to 21st, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 7.6% to 1508.44 points, while the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 13.8% to 1368.41 points [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes: The trading data of container shipping futures on the European route on April 23rd shows that different contracts had different price changes, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase of 6.01% and the EC2504 contract having a decrease of 0.19% [6] - Shipping-Related Data Charts: The report provides charts on global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][22]