Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Supply side is gradually recovering, with smelter processing fees at a low level. Domestic tin ore imports from January to March decreased by 55.44% year - on - year. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the Congo's Bisie mine have an impact on supply. Demand is uncertain, with improved solder开工率 mainly in leading enterprises. A short - term bearish rebound is expected, and high - level short positions should be held. Monitor the production dynamics of Myanmar's tin mines [1]. Nickel - The macro situation is temporarily stable. Indonesia's new policy on nickel product royalties is about to be implemented, increasing the cost of nickel mines. The supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, while the cost provides some support at the bottom. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract running between 122,000 - 128,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment has recovered, but there is still uncertainty. The cost of nickel mines is rising, and the price of nickel iron is weakening. Supply is relatively loose in the short term, domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory is still at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 12,600 - 13,000 [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price fluctuated widely. The supply pressure is clear, with increased production after upstream resumption and more overseas ore arrivals. Demand is generally stable but underperforms in the peak season, and there is a risk of a decline in energy - storage export orders. The inventory is accumulating in all links. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 66,000 - 72,000 [7]. Zinc - The supply side shows a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side weakens after the peak season, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The tariff pressure is relatively relieved. The zinc price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariffs, or it may maintain a high - level shock. The main contract is expected to run between 21,500 - 23,500 [10]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply - side reduction due to losses increases, and there is potential supply risk from Guinea's ore. The demand for domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable but with limited growth, and the export window is closed. The price may rebound due to marginal supply changes and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply capacity is stable, demand is seasonally strong but may weaken, and the low inventory supports the price. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract running between 19,000 - 21,000 [12]. Copper - Macroeconomically, the potential reduction of China's counter - tariffs by Trump and the "232" investigation on copper in the US affect the price. Fundamentally, demand is strong, with improved copper rod开工率 and inventory reduction, while copper ore supply is tight. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract running between 76,000 - 79,000 [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices remained unchanged at 258,800 and 259,300 respectively. The SMM 1 tin premium remained at 1,000 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 10.84% to - 222.00 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 15.68% to - 6,057.89 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.31 [1]. Inter - Month Spread - The spreads of 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 changed by 50.00%, 166.67%, - 26.92%, and - 169.57% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83% to 8,323, SMM refined tin production increased by 7.33% to 15,080, refined tin imports increased by 12.41% to 2,101, and exports decreased by 29.50% to 1,673. The average开工率 of SMM refined tin in March was 62.60%, and that of SMM solder in February was 59.10% [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 7.77% to 9,571.0 tons, social inventory decreased by 10.09% to 10,485.0 tons, SHEF daily inventory decreased by 0.20% to 8,977.0 tons, and LME daily inventory decreased by 1.74% to 2,830.0 tons [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.18% to 126,925 yuan/ton, and the 1 imported nickel premium increased to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.86% to - 208 dollars/ton [2]. Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 1.85% to 126,752 yuan/ton, and that of integrated high - grade nickel matte - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 2.47% to 132,092 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.64% to 70,400 yuan/ton [2]. Inter - Month Spread - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 changed to - 140, - 110, and - 300 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons, and imports increased by 99.27% to 18,897 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% to 30,594 tons, social inventory decreased by 5.87% to 43,308 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1.06% to 204,252 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,250 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 23.81% to 480 yuan/ton [5]. Raw Material Prices - The average price of 8 - 12% high - grade nickel pig iron decreased by 0.20% to 974 yuan/nickel point, and the price of 304 waste stainless steel in Wenzhou decreased by 1.03% to 9,650 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - Month Spread - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 changed to - 30, - 35, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively [5]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production (Qinglong) decreased by 6.67% to 42.00 million tons. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45% to 12.89 million tons, and exports increased by 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [5]. Inventory - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.33% to 55.83 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.37% to 17.32 million tons [5]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.64% to 70,400 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 313.64% to 910 yuan/ton [7]. Inter - Month Spread - The spreads of 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2505 - 2512 changed to 100, 60, and - 2,400 yuan/ton respectively [7]. Fundamental Data - In March, lithium carbonate production increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons, demand increased by 15.07% to 87,002 tons, and the total inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons. In April, the capacity increased by 1.52% to 133,522 tons, and the开工率 increased by 20.00% to 54 [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 1.33% to 22,880 yuan/ton, and the premium increased to 180 yuan/ton [10]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import profit was 86 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.62 [10]. Inter - Month Spread - The spreads of 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 changed to 285, 215, 120, and 55 yuan/ton respectively [10]. Fundamental Data - In March, refined zinc production increased by 1.78% to 50.82 million tons, imports increased by 98.28% to 5.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 52.41% to 0.10 million tons. The galvanizing开工率 increased by 0.60% to 64.34% [10]. Inventory - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 11.93% to 9.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 3.75% to 18.5 million tons [10]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.15% to 19,910 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased to 20 yuan/ton [12]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss was - 1,167 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.26 [12]. Inter - Month Spread - The spreads of 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 changed to 50, 70, 50, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Fundamental Data - In March, alumina production increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 11.22% to 371.42 million tons. The aluminum profile开工率 was 58.50%, and the aluminum cable开工率 increased by 3.25% to 63.60% [12]. Inventory - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 7.04% to 67.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1.41% to 42.6 million tons [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 1.28% to 78,185 yuan/ton, and the premium increased to 182 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 increased to 56.00 dollars/ton [13]. Inter - Month Spread - The spreads of 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2507 - 2508 changed to 200, 240, and 170 yuan/ton respectively [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons, and imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The electrolytic copper rod开工率 increased to 78.07%, and the recycled copper rod开工率 was 29.82% [13]. Inventory - Domestic social inventory decreased by 21.56% to 19.65 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 6.19% to 17.16 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 3.50% to 20.53 million tons [13].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250424
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-04-24 02:50