瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly declined, with an increase in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Overseas, the Fed's Beige Book shows that economic uncertainty has increased due to factors such as tariffs, and the prospects of multiple regions have significantly deteriorated. The US April S&P Global Composite PMI hit a 16 - month low. Domestically, Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that it's not the right way to deal with China. Fundamentally, the TC spot index of copper concentrate continues to decline, the domestic rough copper processing fee weakens slightly, and the supply of refined copper raw materials remains tight. In terms of supply, although the supply of copper concentrate is tight, smelters have good inventory and sufficient port inventory, so the short - term supply of domestic refined copper remains relatively stable. In terms of demand, due to the peak consumption season and macro - policies to expand domestic demand, the consumption of downstream copper processing enterprises has recovered, leading to a continuous reduction in domestic refined copper inventory. In the spot market, due to tight raw material supply, upstream adopts a price - holding strategy, and downstream buys on dips and as needed, resulting in average trading sentiment and a volatile refined copper quotation. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of stable supply and slight growth in demand. The overseas macro - situation is still unstable, while domestic policies are positive with good expectations. The domestic de - stocking period has arrived, consumption has recovered, and inventory is gradually being reduced. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.96, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0102, indicating a bearish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars have slightly expanded. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position range trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,388.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 166,136 lots, a decrease of 4,919 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,374 lots, an increase of 2,435 lots. The LME copper inventory was 205,250 tons, a decrease of 7,450 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 171,611 tons (weekly), a decrease of 11,330 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 76,050 tons, a decrease of 1,775 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 42,964 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 103 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 90 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 705 yuan/ton, an increase of 410 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 - month spread was - 19.12 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.59 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 34.88 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 34.71 US dollars/thousand tons (weekly), a decrease of 3.82 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 68,500 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 860 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 69,200 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 860 yuan. The processing fee of rough copper in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the processing fee of rough copper in the north was 800 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged. The output of refined copper was 124.80 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 470,000 tons (monthly), an increase of 50,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons (weekly), an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 212.52 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 14.76 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 956 billion yuan (monthly), an increase of 519.80 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 19,904.17 billion yuan (monthly), an increase of 9,184.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,197,199,900 pieces, a decrease of 80,202,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 32.43%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 24.59%, an increase of 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 18.15%, an increase of 0.0019. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.96, a decrease of 0.0102 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed released the "Beige Book" of economic conditions, showing that economic activity has hardly changed since the last report, but the uncertainty of international trade policies is widespread. Only five regions had a slight increase in economic activity, three reported basically unchanged economic activity, and four reported a slight decline. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the US Q1 GDP growth rate to 0.1%. The International Monetary Fund said that the expected tariff increase in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1%; if the decline in income and output due to tariffs exceeds the current forecast, the global debt level may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027. The IMF's April "World Economic Outlook Report" significantly lowered the global economic growth rate and warned that the rapid escalation of trade tensions and extremely high policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. The US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the Services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the Composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5). The Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 47.5, March final value 48.6); the Services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5, March final value 51.0); the Composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, March final value 50.9). The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to "Trump saying he might significantly reduce tariffs on China" and "the White House saying that the China - US trade agreement negotiation has made progress", stating that China is not willing to fight a tariff war but is not afraid of it. If the US really wants to solve the problem through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and blackmailing and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [2].