瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250424

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, L2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is expected to rise in the short - term as PE maintenance in the second quarter will mainly start in late May. The demand for agricultural films is ending, and the demand for packaging films is insufficient. The international oil price has slightly declined, and the US trade policy remains uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 7149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 480395 hands, an increase of 163968 hands, and the open interest is 479020 hands, an increase of 22248 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 69234 hands, a decrease of 8727 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7477.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91 yuan/ton, and in East China is 7411.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.41 yuan/ton. The basis is 328.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.91 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore is 63.79 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.45 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 589 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton. The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Northeast Asia is 791 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 83.81%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 47.56%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 31.5%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural films is 30.09%, a decrease of 7.45 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 22.2%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.45%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.94%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points, and that of at - the - money call options is 12.93%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On April 24, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that there was no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US. From April 18 to 24, China's polyethylene production was 64.25 tons, a 1.42% increase. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.01%. As of April 3, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.61 tons, a 2.91% increase, and as of April 18, the social inventory was 60.56 tons, a 1.68% decrease [2].