瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250424

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, V2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 4930 and resistance around 5100. The supply pressure has increased in the short - term due to the restart of the 800,000 - ton Bohua device this week, while the demand of downstream PVC floor enterprises, pipes and profiles is affected by factors such as tariff shocks and the weak real estate situation. The decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and the ethylene market's external sales pressure has eased, but demand follow - up is still insufficient. The US trade policy still has uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4968 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the trading volume is 629,540 lots, down 238,592 lots; the open interest is 921,503 lots, up 17,875 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 776,033 lots, down 8,672 lots; the short position is 856,251 lots, up 7,471 lots; the net long position is - 80,218 lots, down 16,143 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4806.15 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5070 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4876.25 yuan/ton, up 14.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 188 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2806.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2568 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 541 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 206 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 211 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 77.35%, up 0.68 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.35%, up 0.13 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.09%, up 2.11 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 441,400 tons, down 9,200 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 395,200 tons, down 10,000 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 46,200 tons, up 800 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 7.73344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.72%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.61%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.68%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.68%, up 0.88 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - On April 24, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there was no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US, let alone an agreement. On April 24, the cash - on - delivery price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4740 to 4840 yuan/ton. From April 12 to 18, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. As of April 24, the PVC social inventory of the new (41) samples decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 6.877 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3].