建信期货豆粕日报-20250425

Report Overview - Report Date: April 25, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Trading Recommendations 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2505 | 2973 | 2991 | 3097 | 2974 | 3049 | 76 | 2.56% | 411,894 | 273,326 | -11,101 | | Soybean Meal 2507 | 2904 | 2898 | 2935 | 2893 | 2911 | 7 | 0.24% | 212,342 | 515,233 | 12,657 | | Soybean Meal 2509 | 3044 | 3042 | 3075 | 3034 | 3059 | 15 | 0.49% | 1,919,721 | 2,417,063 | -1,931 | [6] 1.2 Market Analysis - CBOT Soybeans: After a rebound in the week after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, CBOT soybeans entered a narrow - range oscillation last week. International trade negotiations restricted the downward pressure on prices. Pakistan's potential increase in soybean purchases and the expected 83.5 million - acre new - season US soybean planting area (a significant year - on - year decrease) make it difficult for prices to fall [6]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: It is in a state of tight current supply but wide future expectations. March's imported soybean volume was only 3.5 million tons, and April's customs clearance was slow. The soybean meal inventory has dropped to a multi - year low, reflected in the rising prices. However, in the long run, with the large - scale arrival of Brazilian soybeans and continuous state - reserve auctions, the supply of soybean raw materials will be relatively loose after several months [6]. 1.3 Trading Recommendations - For futures, it is recommended to be long on the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts. Although there will be supply pressure in the second quarter, factors such as the increase in import costs after the Brazilian selling pressure eases, the opening of the US weather and tariff themes will be favorable for the long side [6]. 2. Industry News - A commodity research institution lowered its 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 1% to 115 million tons, with an estimated range of 109 - 121 million tons. The expected planting area is 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year, 500,000 acres higher than the USDA's March 31 forecast. The latest analyst survey shows a planting area of 83.8 million acres (range: 82.5 - 85.5 million acres), and the USDA's next survey - based forecast will be released on June 30 [7][8] - According to industry analysts' surveys, for the week ending April 17, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 2 - 8 million tons (2 - 6 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 2 million tons for the 2025/26 season), US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 1.5 - 4 million tons (1.5 - 3.5 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 0.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season), and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 500 - 35,000 tons (500 - 25,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025/26 season) [8] 3. Data Overview - The data sources for various charts (including soybean meal ex - factory price, 05 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate) are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][17]