大越期货工业硅期货早报-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 70,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week. The demand was 84,000 tons, a 47.37% increase week-on-week, indicating a rising demand. The inventory of polysilicon and silicone was at a high level, while the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was at a low level. The cost support in Xinjiang's dry season has increased [6]. - The basis on April 24 showed that the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 625 yuan/ton for the 06 contract, indicating a spot premium over futures, which is a bullish signal. The social inventory decreased by 0.16% week-on-week, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.44%, and the main port inventory decreased by 1.44%, which is a bearish signal. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions, which is a bearish signal [6]. - The supply schedule is expected to decrease, remaining around the historical average level. The demand is expected to recover, and the cost support is expected to increase. The industrial silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,790 - 8,960 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - The production of polysilicon last week was 22,300 tons, a 2.76% increase week-on-week. The production schedule for April is predicted to be 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase month-on-month. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to continue to increase, indicating a continuous recovery in overall demand. The cost support is expected to remain stable [9]. - The basis on April 24 showed that the price of N-type polysilicon was 42,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,625 yuan/ton for the 06 contract, indicating a spot premium over futures, which is a bullish signal. The weekly inventory was 251,000 tons, a 2.86% increase week-on-week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history, which is a bearish signal. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal. The net position of the main players was long, with a decrease in long positions, which is a bullish signal [10]. - The supply schedule is expected to continue to increase, and the demand is expected to continue to recover. The cost support is expected to remain stable. The polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 38,880 - 39,870 yuan/ton [9]. Overall Market - The report indicates that the market is affected by factors such as cost support, production and supply schedules, and demand recovery. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon: The supply remained stable last week, while the demand increased significantly. The inventory situation varied among different downstream products, and the cost support increased. The basis, inventory, disk, and main player positions provided a mixed set of signals. The price is expected to fluctuate in a specific range [6]. - Polysilicon: The production and demand are both showing an upward trend. The cost support is stable, and the basis, inventory, disk, and main player positions also present a combination of bullish and bearish signals. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon: The report provides detailed data on the production, demand, inventory, cost, and price of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicone, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [6][16][18]. - Polysilicon: The report presents data on the production, demand, inventory, cost, and price of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [9][10][18]. 3.3 Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The report shows the price, basis, inventory, and production data of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the price and production data of its downstream products [16]. - Polysilicon: The report provides the price, production, inventory, and cost data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3.4 Downstream Product Analysis - Silicone: The report analyzes the production, cost, price, and inventory of silicone, including DMC, 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber. It also shows the import and export data of DMC [40][42][45]. - Aluminum Alloy: The report examines the price, supply, inventory, and production of aluminum alloy, including waste aluminum recycling, aluminum scrap imports, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots. It also analyzes the demand for aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries [48][51][52]. - Polysilicon: The report studies the production, cost, price, and inventory of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. It also analyzes the cost, profit, and supply-demand balance of polysilicon components [58][61][75]. 3.5 Cost and Supply-Demand Balance - Industrial Silicon: The report analyzes the cost of industrial silicon production in different regions, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang. It also presents the weekly and monthly supply-demand balance data of industrial silicon [32][34][37]. - Polysilicon: The report shows the cost trend of the polysilicon industry and the monthly supply-demand balance data of polysilicon [58][61]. 3.6 Power Generation and Grid Connection - The report analyzes the new power generation capacity, power generation structure, and new grid-connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations, including solar, wind, nuclear, thermal, and hydropower. It also shows the monthly power generation data of solar energy [77].