广发期货《黑色》日报-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current market sentiment recovery and low inventory reality are expected to lead to a temporary stabilization of prices, but the repeated macro - expectations still interfere with the market, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. The long - steel and short - ore strategy has fallen to near the previous low, and the support near the previous low can be observed [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. The terminal demand for finished products determines the sustainability of high iron - water production. The marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. The decline in exports is highly certain, and attention should be paid to the hedging strength of domestic demand. After the iron - water production reaches a phased peak, the supply - demand pressure will increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal. The fundamentals of coke have improved month - on - month. The latest news that the US may ease high - tariff policies on China has improved the macro - expectations. It is expected that coking enterprises will propose a second price increase soon, which will support the futures price [7]. Ferrosilicon - The overall downward space of ferrosilicon is limited. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is alleviated, but the factory inventory is high and the steelmaking demand reaches a phased peak, so the price lacks the impetus to rebound. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will fluctuate horizontally [8]. Ferromanganese - The price of ferromanganese is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferromanganese needs to be resolved, and the market sentiment remains volatile due to frequent domestic and foreign disturbances [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, showed a downward trend. For example, the rebar 05 contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 32 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of steel billets and some steel production processes changed slightly. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions generally increased, while the profits of rebar in the north were still in the negative range but improved [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production remained unchanged at 240.1 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.2%, and the inventory of rebar decreased by 4.2% [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for steel products showed a mixed trend. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 5.1%, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly by 0.1%. The annual demand is difficult to have a positive growth expectation, and the production has returned to the year - on - year growth level [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of most iron ore varieties, including spot and contract prices, showed a downward trend. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed to varying degrees [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipments increased slightly week - on - week, while the arrivals decreased significantly. The port inventory increased, and the backlog of ships at ports was still high [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills increased significantly to 244 tons, mainly due to the repair of steel mill profits and the resumption of blast furnaces. The apparent demand for finished products showed a mixed trend [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of coke and coking coal showed an upward trend. The first - round price increase of coke at the factory level was implemented, and the spot market of coking coal was generally stable [7]. Supply - The production of coking coal in domestic mines continued to resume, and the production of coke increased slightly [7]. Demand - The utilization rate of downstream steel - mill production capacity slowed down. The iron - water production increased significantly to over 244 tons per day, and there is a possibility of reaching a peak in the future [7]. Inventory - The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, with upstream mines starting to accumulate inventory and ports continuing to reduce inventory. The total inventory of coke increased slightly, with coke plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory [7]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The futures price of the ferrosilicon main contract weakened again, and the prices of most spot varieties remained stable or decreased slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The price of semi - coke remained stable, and the production costs of different regions increased slightly. The production profits decreased [8]. Supply - Ferrosilicon continued to reduce production, with the production volume decreasing by 1.4% and the operating rate decreasing by 4.6% [8]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon showed a mixed trend. The iron - water production increased significantly, and the export in March increased by 24.46% month - on - month, but the market generally believed that there was no special driving force [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decreased by 5.0% [8]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The futures price of the ferromanganese main contract fell again, and the prices of most spot varieties decreased slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ores in different origins decreased slightly, the production costs decreased, and the losses of some regions deepened [8]. Supply - Ferromanganese continued to reduce production, with the production volume decreasing by 1.4% and the operating rate decreasing by 5.9% [8]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese increased slightly. The iron - water production increased significantly, and the 4 - month procurement of Hebei Iron and Steel Group showed a double - decline in quantity and price [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15.4%, and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory increased by 2.1% [8].