大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250425

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: April 25, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are bearish, with the market expected to be volatile today due to factors such as new capacity releases, tariff - affected demand, and the end of the agricultural film peak season. However, the strong basis provides some support [4][5]. - The overall fundamentals of PP are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile today, mainly influenced by new capacity releases and tariff - affected demand, while the strong basis is a positive factor [6][7]. Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In March, official and Caixin PMI data were good. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, which is expected to drive down the price center. New capacity is concentrated in the second quarter, the agricultural film peak season has ended, and export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7420 (+10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 271, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.8%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.1 million tons (+1.9), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by factors such as tariff - weakened exports, concentrated new capacity releases, and neutral industrial chain inventory [4]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: In March, official and Caixin PMI data were good. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, which is expected to drive down the price center. Tariff counter - measures are expected to increase the cost of imported propane and affect PDH plant profits. The industrial chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand such as plastic weaving is mainly for rigid needs. Export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (+0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 258, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 61.9 million tons (-1.8), which is neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by factors such as tariff - weakened exports, neutral industrial chain inventory, and rigid downstream demand [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].