合成橡胶市场周报-20250425

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber remained stable. Recently, the supply of domestic raw materials is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises has generally declined. After the restart of some private plants in North and East China next week, production will increase, and the inventory level of enterprises may continue to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased, and the sales pressure of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased. The br2506 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 10,500 - 11,500 [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and as of April 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [7] - Market Outlook: Recently, the supply of domestic raw materials is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises has generally declined. After the restart of some private plants in North and East China next week, production will increase, and the inventory level of enterprises may continue to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased, and the sales pressure of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased [7] - Strategy Recommendation: The br2506 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 10,500 - 11,500 [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 3.56% [11] - Position Analysis: Not elaborated in detail in the text - Inter - delivery Spread: As of April 25, the 5 - 6 spread of butadiene rubber was - 65 [19] - Warehouse Receipts: As of April 25, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 7,520 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week [22] 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price: As of April 24, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of April 24, the basis of butadiene rubber was 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of April 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 582 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 790 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of April 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.75%, a decrease of 3.33% from last week. As of April 25, the butadiene port inventory was 34,800 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week [34] 3.3.2 Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization: In March 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of April 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 67.17%, an increase of 4.41% from last week [38] - Production Profit: As of April 24, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 136 yuan/ton, an increase of 515 yuan/ton from last week [41] - Inventory: As of April 23, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. As of April 25, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 28,640 tons, an increase of 930 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 3,610 tons, a decrease of 760 tons from last week [44] 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.38 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.84 percentage points [47] - Tire Exports: In March 2025, China's tire exports were 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March, China's cumulative tire exports were 1,948,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [50] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report