硅铁市场周报：关税扰动情绪反复，厂家减产价格震荡-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPR remained unchanged this month, and the crude steel output increased seasonally in March. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The global economic uncertainty is high, and trade tensions are intensifying [6]. - Trump's attitude towards China has softened, and it is expected that tariffs on Chinese goods will be significantly reduced, which eases market pessimism, and the commodity index fluctuates [6]. - The ferroalloy production profit is negative, and the molten iron output continues to rise. The overall demand for steel is still weak, and the 75B ferrosilicon tender quantity of Hegang in April decreased compared with the previous round [6]. - The prices of semi - coke and electricity are generally stable, with little expected change [6]. - The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon 2506 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - The supply is decreasing, and the power cost provides support. The spot price change is limited, and the sector demand is under pressure. Ferrosilicon 2505 is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: This month, the LPR remained unchanged. In March, the crude steel output increased seasonally, and the average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities decreased. The global economic uncertainty is high, and trade tensions are intensifying [6]. - Overseas Aspect: Trump's attitude towards China has softened, and it is expected that tariffs on Chinese goods will be significantly reduced. There are two possible tariff adjustment plans [6]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: The ferroalloy production profit is negative, the molten iron output rises, and the overall steel demand is weak. The 75B ferrosilicon tender quantity of Hegang in April decreased compared with the previous round [6]. - Cost Aspect: The prices of semi - coke and electricity are generally stable, with little expected change [6]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon 2506 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The supply is decreasing, and the power cost provides support. The spot price change is limited, and the sector demand is under pressure. Ferrosilicon 2505 is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of April 25, the open interest of ferrosilicon futures contracts decreased by 36,900 lots compared with the previous period, and the monthly spread increased by 52. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 530, and the spot price remained unchanged [8][12][14]. - Spot Market: As of April 25, the basis of ferrosilicon increased by 42, reaching - 60 yuan/ton [20][21]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: As of April 24, the national operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 30.91%, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous period, and the daily average output decreased by 200 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types increased by 0.08% week - on - week, and the national ferrosilicon output was 98,900 tons. The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 11.82% from the previous period [27][31]. - Upstream: As of April 21, the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for ferrosilicon production remained unchanged. As of April 24, the price of Shenmu semi - coke remained unchanged. The production profit of ferrosilicon was negative [37][43]. - Downstream: As of April 25, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased compared with the previous week and the same period last year. From January to February 2025, the total ferrosilicon export volume decreased by 26.65% compared with the same period last year [47].