贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Precious Metals - The intraday trend of Shanghai gold futures showed a volatile decline. The Fed's Beige Book repeatedly mentioned tariff risks, suppressing market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakened the attractiveness of gold. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, as global central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties still support the gold price [3]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may still rise slightly, but the upward space is limited. Policy stability, seasonal decline in domestic inventories, low refined - scrap spreads, and the relationship between current positions and previous prices all suggest a small upside potential [14]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ingot inventories continued to decline. Although cost - side support weakened, demand - side performance was mixed, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar index affected market sentiment. Overseas mine accidents and the closure of the import window limited the downside space for zinc prices [35]. Aluminum & Alumina - For aluminum, overseas macro conditions are bearish, and although aluminum ingots are de - stocking, global demand may weaken after mid - April. For alumina, supply has decreased due to factory overhauls, but it is difficult to say that the trend has reversed due to factors such as supply surplus and large warehouse - receipt pressure [46]. Nickel - The fundamentals of the nickel industry have shown little recent change. Nickel - iron prices have stabilized, but stainless - steel demand remains weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, and Indonesia's new energy plan may affect the industry. The market sentiment has eased, but macro - level disturbances need attention [66]. Tin - Tin prices have been significantly affected by macro and fundamental factors recently, experiencing a sharp decline and then a quick recovery, and stabilizing on April 11. Although price volatility is decreasing, the impact of macro events on tin prices cannot be ruled out [81]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are temporarily stable. The market is dull, and the impact of tariffs on the lithium - carbonate industry chain may suppress long - term demand [93]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the market is in a weak adjustment phase. In the long term, the market has over - capacity and high social inventories [103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Trend: Shanghai gold futures showed a volatile decline, and the COMEX gold price and related ratios are presented in the figures [3][4]. - Influencing Factors: Tariff risks, the US dollar index, global central bank gold - buying demand, and geopolitical uncertainties affect the gold price [3]. Copper - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai copper and London copper futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are provided. The latest prices of copper spot in different regions and their changes are also given [15][20]. - Influencing Factors: Policy stability, domestic inventory changes, refined - scrap spreads, and position - price relationships affect copper prices [14]. Zinc - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are shown. The latest prices of zinc spot and related spreads are also presented [36][40]. - Inventory Data: The latest inventory data of Shanghai zinc and London zinc, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [42]. - Influencing Factors: Inventory changes, cost - side factors, demand - side performance, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index affect zinc prices [35]. Aluminum & Alumina - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are given. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina spot and related spreads are also presented [47][54]. - Inventory Data: The latest inventory data of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [61]. - Influencing Factors: Overseas macro conditions, supply - demand relationships, and factory overhauls affect aluminum and alumina prices [46]. Nickel - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel and London nickel futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are shown. The latest prices of nickel spot and related spreads are also presented [67][71]. - Inventory Data: The latest inventory data of Shanghai nickel and related downstream products, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [67]. - Influencing Factors: Fundamentals, stainless - steel demand, Indonesia's new energy plan, and macro - level disturbances affect nickel prices [66]. Tin - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai tin and London tin futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are given. The latest prices of tin spot and related spreads are also presented [82][86]. - Inventory Data: The latest inventory data of Shanghai tin and London tin, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [88]. - Influencing Factors: Macro events, mine operations, and tariff policies affect tin prices [81]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Data: The latest prices of lithium - carbonate futures, along with their daily, weekly changes, and percentage changes, are shown. The latest prices of lithium - related spot and related spreads are also presented [93][98]. - Inventory Data: The latest inventory data of lithium carbonate, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [101]. - Influencing Factors: Market conditions, trade policies, and downstream demand affect lithium - carbonate prices [93]. Industrial Silicon - Price Data: The latest prices of industrial - silicon spot in different regions and their changes are given. The latest prices of industrial - silicon futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are also presented [104][105]. - Inventory Data: The latest inventory data of industrial silicon, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [124]. - Influencing Factors: Supply - side price concessions, over - capacity, and high social inventories affect industrial - silicon prices [103].