2024年中国绿色甲醇行业概览：双碳战略驱动千亿级清洁能源赛道，产业链爆发式增长前瞻（精华版）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential for the green methanol industry, with an expected market size exceeding 27 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the dual carbon strategy and technological advancements [3][51]. Core Insights - The green methanol industry in China is accelerating, focusing on technologies such as biomass gasification and electro-methanol, covering shipping, chemicals, energy storage, and industrial boilers. The International Maritime Organization's emission reduction targets and China's dual carbon policies are driving the transition from traditional high-carbon fuels to green methanol [3][4]. - The main technological routes identified are electro-methanol and biomass gasification, with electro-methanol expected to achieve a long-term cost reduction to approximately 2,100 yuan per ton, while biomass gasification costs are more variable depending on raw material prices [3][34]. - Green methanol has significant advantages in the shipping sector, with lifecycle carbon emissions as low as 0-0.7 tons per ton, making it a preferred transitional fuel for decarbonization [4][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The green methanol industry is characterized by rapid development, with key players including new energy companies, state-owned enterprises, and traditional energy firms transitioning through technological innovation and comprehensive industry chain layouts [3][5]. Market Participants - The market consists of four main types of participants: new energy companies (e.g., Goldwind Technology), state-owned green electricity enterprises (e.g., State Power Investment Corporation), construction firms (e.g., China Energy Engineering), and traditional energy companies (e.g., PetroChina) [5][16]. Technological Routes - The core technological routes for green methanol production are electro-methanol and biomass gasification, with electro-methanol being favored due to its lower long-term costs and technological advantages [3][34]. Cost Analysis - Current costs for electro-methanol are around 4,500 yuan per ton, primarily driven by green hydrogen costs. Future reductions are anticipated, potentially lowering costs to 2,100-2,200 yuan per ton [22][36]. - Biomass gasification costs are currently about 3,800 yuan per ton, heavily influenced by raw material prices, with potential reductions if biomass prices decrease [25][36]. Market Growth Potential - The green methanol market is expected to expand rapidly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 27 billion yuan by 2030, driven by increasing demand in commercial vehicles and shipping sectors [51][54].