野村陆挺：政治局可能比市场预期的更为冷静

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards investment in the current economic climate, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and policy implementation to mitigate risks associated with the ongoing US-China trade conflict [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the ongoing US-China trade conflict is perceived as a "struggle," with calls for emergency plans to support affected businesses and accelerate policy easing measures [1][5]. - It notes that the Chinese government is not in a rush to implement specific stimulus measures, aiming to project a calm and prepared image while assessing the uncertain impacts of new tariffs [2][4]. - The report warns that the simultaneous decline of the real estate market and export sector could have destructive and structural impacts on economic growth, necessitating policies that go beyond short-term stimulus [5][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of a proactive macroeconomic policy, urging the acceleration of fiscal and monetary policy measures, including the issuance of special bonds and potential interest rate cuts [8][10]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy - The report stresses the need for a more aggressive macroeconomic policy, advocating for the timely implementation of fiscal and monetary measures to stabilize the economy [8][10]. - It predicts a 50 basis point cut in reserve requirements and a 15 basis point interest rate cut in the second quarter, with similar actions expected in the fourth quarter [8][10]. Real Estate and Exports - The report indicates that the real estate sector continues to decline, and the export industry faces significant challenges due to high tariffs, which could exacerbate economic pressures [6][12]. - It suggests that the government should focus on reforming the real estate sector and improving policies related to housing inventory management [10][12]. Employment and Agriculture - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the labor market and agricultural prices, particularly in light of the cessation of agricultural imports from the US due to tariffs [11][12]. - It calls for enhanced domestic agricultural production to ensure food security and price stability [12]. Support for Businesses - The report emphasizes the need for multi-faceted support for struggling enterprises, including improving financing channels and promoting domestic and international trade integration [13].