汇丰：印度电力_配电公司发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "neutral" investment rating for the Indian power sector, reflecting a cautious outlook on demand growth and pricing dynamics [9]. Core Insights - Power demand in India grew by approximately 6.6% year-on-year in March 2025 but slowed to about 1.7% in the first 20 days of April due to a high base effect from the previous year [10][17]. - For FY25, overall power demand growth is projected to slow to around 3.9%, with renewable energy (RE) contributing significantly to this growth [13][20]. - The report highlights a notable increase in renewable capacity, with approximately 29GW added in FY25, accounting for about one-third of the overall demand growth [4][36]. Summary by Sections Power Demand Trends - Power requirement and peak power demand grew by approximately 7% and 6% respectively in March, primarily driven by heat waves, but growth slowed to about 2% in April [2][10]. - The high base from FY24 has led to a decrease in demand growth expectations for FY25, with a forecasted growth of around 4% compared to 8-10% in FY22-24 [3][13]. Renewable Energy Contributions - Renewable energy accounted for about 33% of the incremental demand growth in FY25, with solar energy being the primary contributor [4][42]. - Total renewable capacity reached 172GW by the end of March 2025, representing 36% of the total installed capacity [35]. Storage and Tender Activity - There has been a rise in storage-only tenders, with 4GWh of capacity awarded in CY25, as DISCOMs aim to manage peak demand more effectively [5][134]. - The report notes that 38GW of contracted renewable capacity tenders were concluded in FY25, with a significant portion being hybrid capacities [5][134]. Pricing and Market Dynamics - The average IEX prices have stabilized at INR4.3-4.4/kWh, reflecting a 15% year-on-year decline for April [63]. - The price of Indian-made solar modules has decreased to USD0.15 per Watt-peak, down 9% from five months ago and 32% from a year ago [6][131]. State-Level Demand Variations - Demand in major states like Maharashtra and Gujarat showed strong growth, while Tamil Nadu experienced a decline [90][94]. - The report provides detailed monthly growth percentages for electricity demand across various states, highlighting regional disparities [90].