摩根士丹利：台积电，关税对科技行业的影响以及日本特殊目的实体

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Cautious [3] Core Insights - TSMC is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 53% if not involved in an Intel joint venture operation [20] - Global semiconductor revenue peaked in Q3 2024, with a forecasted decline in foundry demand due to potential new tariffs [10][27] - TSMC's revenue guidance for Q2 2025 is projected between US$28.4 billion to US$29.2 billion, reflecting a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase at the midpoint [25] Summary by Sections TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC reported Q1 2025 revenue of NT$839.254 million, a decrease of 3.4% quarter-over-quarter but an increase of 41.6% year-over-year [22] - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between US$28.4 billion and US$29.2 billion, indicating a 29.8% year-over-year increase at the midpoint [25] Market Trends and Demand - Global semiconductor inventory days declined at the end of 2024, with non-AI semiconductor demand recovery being a key factor for 2025 [29] - AI computing wafer consumption is projected to reach US$16.1 billion in 2025, with NVIDIA expected to account for the majority [59] Semiconductor Production Equipment - Disco reported a 4Q shipment value of ¥92.5 billion, a decrease of 2.6% year-over-year, with sales increasing by 15.7% to ¥120.7 billion [76] - The company expects a significant increase in shipments for HBM applications in the first quarter of F3/26 [76]