摩根士丹利：不确定性加剧-关税影响情景分析

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [8] Core Insights - The report indicates that uncertainties regarding US tariffs on electronic products persist, leading to an unattractive risk-reward scenario for the tech hardware supply chain [3][4] - A scenario analysis suggests a potential 17-18% downside to earnings estimates for 2025-26, with consumer tech being the most affected segment [3][4][36] - The report emphasizes the need for diversification of production capacity, particularly away from China, although this may incur high costs [5][26] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The analysis presents three scenarios (bear, base, bull) regarding tariff impacts, with the base case indicating a 17% earnings estimate cut for 2025 and 18% for 2026 [14][16] - The bear case suggests a prolonged downturn lasting six to eight quarters, while the bull case anticipates limited tariff disruption [19][22] Consumer Technology Sector - Companies heavily exposed to consumer tech, such as those in the Apple supply chain, face significant profit pressures due to price inflation and demand slowdown [4][10][36] - The report forecasts only 8% and 16% YoY earnings growth for the Apple supply chain and PC/NB peers, respectively, in 2025 [18][36] Production Capacity and Costs - Current production capacity for Apple hardware remains over 70% in China, and shifting to regional production will likely increase costs significantly [5][25] - The FOB price for iPhones produced in the US could be 75% higher than in China due to tariffs [5] Stock Implications - The report advises selective investment in stocks, particularly favoring data center infrastructure plays due to sustained AI demand growth [39] - Several consumer tech stocks have been downgraded, with a total of seven stocks adjusted, including five moved to Underweight [33][36]