野村：亚洲洞察 - 中国每周图表集_经济将面临双重打击

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese economy is facing simultaneous challenges from a declining property sector and escalating US-China trade tensions, which are expected to weaken the property market further, particularly in tier-one cities [1][2] - The Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) has significantly dropped, indicating a bleak outlook for growth post-Q1, with expectations of a decline in the official manufacturing PMI [2] - Local governments' land sales revenues have deteriorated, reflecting ongoing fiscal challenges [3][4] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - New home sales in major cities are declining at a double-digit rate, with no signs of stabilization in the housing sector [1] - The EPMI fell by 10.2 percentage points to 49.4 in April, indicating a contraction in emerging industries [2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - On-budget fiscal revenue growth improved slightly to 0.3% year-on-year in March, while tax revenue growth showed signs of recovery [3] - Local governments' land sales revenues worsened to -16.3% year-on-year in March, indicating ongoing fiscal stress [4] - On-budget fiscal expenditure growth accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in March, driven by increased government bond issuance [5] Property Market Dynamics - Growth in property-related tax revenues improved to -0.1% year-on-year in March, but local governments' land sales revenues continued to decline [4] - New home sales volume in major cities showed a modest improvement, with tier-one cities experiencing a decline of -10.1% year-on-year [11] Trade and Shipping - Container throughput at major ports increased by 10.3% year-on-year, while cargo throughput rose by 5.1% year-on-year [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 1.4% from the end of March, indicating a mixed trend in shipping costs [11]