摩根士丹利：能源_亚洲能从美国进口多少能源

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Attractive" industry view for the energy sector in Asia Pacific [7]. Core Insights - Asia (excluding China) is projected to increase energy imports from the US, with potential additional imports of US$51 billion annually by 2028, which would help lower energy costs and diversify supply [2][4]. - The report highlights that US energy exports to Asia could rise significantly, with crude oil, natural gas, propane, and ethane being the primary products [4][12][15]. - The increase in US energy imports is expected to reduce the trade surplus with the US by 11%, with countries like Japan, Indonesia, and India seeing reductions of 18-39% in their current surpluses [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Energy Import Projections - Asia (ex-China) imported 40 exajoules (EJ) of energy in 2023, accounting for about one-third of its needs, with US imports making up approximately 9% of the region's US$600 billion energy imports in 2024 [4]. - The report estimates that if 30-35% of LNG imports are sourced from the US, energy imports could reach US$51 billion by 2028, and a 50% share would increase this to US$60 billion [4]. Country-Specific Import Data - India: Expected to increase imports from US$10 billion in 2023-24 to US$24 billion by 2028, a US$14 billion increment [5]. - Japan: Anticipated to double its imports from US$12 billion to US$24 billion [5]. - South Korea: Imports projected to rise from US$20 billion to US$26 billion [5]. - Indonesia: Expected to increase from US$1 billion to US$8 billion [5]. Product-Specific Insights - Crude Oil: Asia (ex-China) imported approximately 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) of US crude in 2023, with potential to increase by 1.5 mbpd by 2028, translating to over US$30 billion annually [12]. - LNG: Asia (ex-China) imported 26 million tons per annum (mntpa) in 2024, with potential to import 47 mntpa from the US by 2028, equating to US$12 billion annually [13]. - Propane: Asia imports 66 mntpa of propane annually, with US propane being 30% cheaper than Asian benchmarks, indicating a potential for increased imports from the US [15]. Beneficiaries of Increased Imports - Companies such as Reliance, GAIL, and Tokyo Gas are expected to benefit from the increased US energy imports due to lower costs [14][5].