摩根士丹利：多行业_未来一周每股收益预览 + 关键宏观议题辩论

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, with specific companies like ALLE, LII, MMM, and WSO being analyzed for their performance and outlook [6]. Core Insights - The report anticipates modest Q1 earnings beats, but emphasizes that outlooks will significantly influence equities, particularly focusing on April demand commentary and price/cost dynamics for the rest of the year [2]. - There is a strong emphasis on pricing power as a key factor for companies to navigate through tariff uncertainties, with a belief that those able to push prices will fare better in terms of near-term revisions [13][19]. - The report highlights a shift in activity towards US Industrials due to reshoring trends, suggesting that US companies are well-positioned to capture a larger share of global capital expenditure [68]. Summary by Sections Company-Specific Analysis - ALLE: The consensus modeling is viewed as conservative for Q1 but aggressive for the rest of the year, with expectations of a modest Q1 EPS beat driven by residential construction dynamics [78][79]. - LII: Expected to see a strong beat in Q1, but with a fade in performance anticipated due to difficult comparisons in the second half of the year [6]. - MMM: Identified as a top risk due to tariff pre-buy concerns, with a projected Q2 growth of 5% quarter-over-quarter, which is considered aggressive [6]. - WSO: Positioned well to achieve pricing power and potentially positive revisions if it can maintain high gross margins amidst tariff inflation [6]. Macro Environment and Trends - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on production and project activity, noting a slowdown in project activity due to uncertainty, while production is expected to continue [9][31]. - It highlights that the US accounts for approximately 30% of global consumption, which provides a competitive advantage for US manufacturers in the face of international competition [9]. - The report indicates that the preference for industrial over consumer exposure is driven by a more capital-intensive world, suggesting a positive outlook for industrial sectors amidst rising inflation [10][20]. Pricing Power and Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that companies with strong pricing power are likely to perform better in the current macroeconomic environment, where uncertainty is prevalent [13][16]. - It notes that pre-buys are generally negative indicators, as they signal a potential decline in future demand, particularly for companies heavily reliant on international sales [41][45]. - The analysis suggests that the ability to maintain price/cost neutrality will be crucial for companies as they navigate through tariff implementations [13][41].