摩根士丹利：生物制药_一图胜千言

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the biopharma industry in North America [7] Core Insights - The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending April 11, 2025, was +2.7%, a decrease from +3.5% the previous week, but consistent with the +2.7% growth over the past 12 weeks [1][2] - The report highlights the launch performance of new drugs, including BMY's Cobenfy for schizophrenia and VRTX's Journavx for acute pain, with specific TRx targets needed to meet consensus sales estimates [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +2.7% compared to +2.3% a year ago, with a rolling 4-week TRx YoY also at +2.7% [2] - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +1.4%, indicating a slower growth rate compared to TRx YoY [2] Drug Launch Analysis - BMY's Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia, recorded approximately 1,660 scripts for the week, up from 1,580 the previous week, with a target of 105K TRx needed to meet 2025 consensus estimates [3] - VRTX's Journavx, approved for acute pain, had around 2,950 scripts for the week, with an estimated average script size of 35-37 pills, indicating a need for approximately 229K scripts for a 14-day duration to achieve $87 million in sales [4] Prescription Trends - The report includes a detailed analysis of prescription trends for major pharmaceuticals, highlighting significant YoY changes for key products such as Humira, Rinvoq, and Skyrizi [19][21] - The GLP-1 franchise, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, showed notable growth, with Mounjaro experiencing a 69% YoY increase [21] Seasonal Vaccine Tracking - The report tracks seasonal respiratory vaccines, noting that RSV vaccine volumes are approximately 65% below last year's levels, while COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [10]