美国千禧一代财富增长预测

Methodology Overview - The forecast employs a bottom-up approach consisting of 8 core steps, integrating income, savings, and wealth trends from previous generations with macroeconomic forecasts from Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model (GEM) [5] - Key steps include calculating savings rates, forecasting household income, estimating asset allocation, and mapping assets and liabilities to GEM forecasts [11][12] Key Findings - Millennial net wealth is projected to grow annually by approximately 9% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2022 to 2045 [15] - Millennial net wealth is expected to accumulate rapidly, outpacing total national wealth growth as savings rates and incomes peak in middle age [18] - The net wealth to income ratio for millennials is forecasted to follow a similar trend as previous generations, indicating consistent growth patterns [23] Asset Growth and Allocation - Wealth in equity and pension assets is anticipated to grow at the highest rates, with equity assets expected to increase by 12.9% and pension assets by 13.6% annually in real terms from 2022 to 2045 [28] - Millennial households primarily hold wealth in real estate, equity, and pension assets, with real estate expected to account for 34% of total wealth by 2045 [26] Income Distribution and Inequality - Households in the top income centile are projected to see the largest increases in net wealth, with a significant concentration of wealth among high-earning millennials [30][36] - The proportion of total net wealth held by the top 10% of earners is expected to rise from 51.9% in 2022 to 63.0% by 2045, indicating increasing wealth inequality [34]