野村东方国际 从“美国例外”到“美国除外”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in investment strategy from "American Exception" to "American Exclusion," suggesting a negative outlook on U.S. assets and a positive outlook on European and Asian markets, particularly in technology sectors [1][2]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of "American Exclusion" is driven by weakening economic growth expectations in the U.S., leading to a significant outflow of funds from dollar-denominated assets into euros, yen, gold, and global technology investments [1][2]. - The rise of AI technology is accelerating the commercialization of China's tech industry, resulting in increased foreign investment in Hong Kong tech companies, which in turn boosts trading volumes in A-shares [1][3]. - There is a notable increase in southbound capital flows contributing over 20% to Hong Kong's trading volume, marking a historical high, while liquidity is primarily flowing into small-cap stocks like the CSI 2000 [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Global Fund Flow Trends - Since the first half of 2025, a significant trend of capital outflow from U.S. assets has been observed, particularly since April, reinforcing the "American Exclusion" phenomenon [2]. - The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index and European markets has been strong, contrasting with the average performance of U.S. and Japanese markets [2]. U.S. Economic Uncertainty - Increasing uncertainty regarding U.S. economic growth is a key factor driving the "American Exclusion" trend, with consumer confidence and purchasing manager indices indicating weakened confidence [4]. - The U.S. government’s spending cuts and defense department layoffs are expected to negatively impact employment data [4]. Institutional vs. Retail Investor Behavior - There is a significant behavioral difference between institutional and retail investors, with institutional trading volumes rising and improving market sentiment, while retail investor sentiment remains low [5][6]. - The proportion of financing purchases has been slow to recover, currently around 4%, which is below levels seen in November of the previous year [6]. Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may occur around December 2025, with potential trading opportunities arising from market adjustments to economic data shifts [10]. - The report highlights that sectors such as technology, AI, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy are likely to attract investor interest in the coming period [20][21]. Foreign Investment in China - Foreign investors are expected to maintain a positive outlook on the Chinese market, with expectations of further inflows into A-shares and H-shares as U.S. economic data weakens [22].