建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250428

Report Overview - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs has been weak this week. After two weeks of strength after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the market needs adjustment, and the decline in the production area exceeded expectations. Although there should be some support before May Day, the market is still weak. Attention should be paid to the demand digestion after May Day [8]. - In the futures market, affected by the weak spot, it fluctuated and declined this week. The main contract 06 fell from 3080 to around 3000. Due to the hard - to - falsify expectation of the rainy season, it may enter the delivery month with a high premium. If the spot cannot continue to rise, the futures may correct. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis. Currently, the basis of 06 is not much different from previous years, and the futures pricing is relatively reasonable [8]. - For the far - month contracts 08 and 09, their pricing is at a moderately low level in history, corresponding to the expectation of increasing egg production in the future. Attention should be paid to whether the spot can stabilize after May Day. If it continues to be weak, combined with the expectation of price decline during the rainy season, the near - month contracts are not optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of eggs in futures contracts 2505, 2506, and 2507 all rose, with increases of 1.54%, 0.37%, and 0.55% respectively. The trading volume of contract 2506 was 144,043, and the trading volume of contract 2507 was 26,337. The spot price of eggs nationwide declined, with the average price in the main production area at 3.33 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales area at 3.53 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - Analysis and Suggestions: The spot price of eggs has been weak this week. The production area's decline exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment is low. Although there should be support before May Day, the market is still weak. In the futures market, affected by the weak spot, it fluctuated and declined this week. The main contract 06 fell. If the spot cannot rise, the futures may correct. Attention should be paid to the basis change. The far - month contracts 08 and 09 are priced at a moderately low level, and attention should be paid to the spot trend after May Day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of March, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.318 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in March was about 46.33 million, showing an increase compared with February and continuing to grow compared with the same period in 2024, ranking at a medium level in the past seven years [9]. - The number of culled chickens has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with the absolute value slightly higher than in the previous two years. However, the culling volume has decreased in the past two weeks. As of April 24, the average age of culled chickens was 536 days, the same as last week and 2 days earlier than last month [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the average price of eggs in the main production area, the seasonal trend of egg contract 05, the basis of egg contract 05, and the price difference between egg contracts 05 and 06 [12][15][18].