锌产业周报-20250428

Core View - Likely Positive Factors: Global zinc sheet supply shortage and continuous reduction of LME inventory support zinc prices. Overseas low inventory combined with production cut expectations, the pattern of tight supply overseas and loose supply in China continues, and the spot premium rises [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The supply of zinc ore in China is abundant, the profit of smelters is restored, and the output of refined zinc increases month - on - month. The processing fee at the mine end rebounds, the supply of concentrates turns loose, and the weak downstream demand leads to slow inventory reduction [3]. - Trading Advice: In the short term, SHFE zinc will maintain a volatile trend. Pay attention to the game between strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals and macro - sentiment [3]. Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized Sheet Coil: The report presents the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly output - seasonality of galvanized sheet coils, sourced from Wind [5]. - Related Trade Data: It also shows the seasonal data of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheets (strips) net exports, and zinc oxide net exports [6][7][20]. - Real Estate Data: The report includes the cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area, as well as the seasonal data of land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [12][14][16]. - Infrastructure Investment Data: It shows the cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in different industries, sourced from Wind [17][18]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Data: The report presents the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract, the closing prices of LME zinc and SHFE zinc, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and US dollar index, LME term structure, and the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc [21][22][23]. - Spot Data: It shows the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations and the seasonal basis of Tianjin zinc ingots [29][30]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Supply Data: The report includes the seasonal data of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly output + import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [33][36][37]. - Profit Data: It shows the production profit of refined zinc enterprises and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates [36].