大越期货沪铜周报-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential impact of Trump's policies on tariffs have affected copper prices. Currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. On the industrial side, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory is 203,450 tons, with a slight decrease last week. SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] - The PMI is declining, the copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. Exchange inventories remain high, while bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [8][10][14][18] - Processing fees are recovering slowly, CFTC non-commercial net long positions are flowing out [22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors affected copper prices, and currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) - PMI: The PMI is declining [8] - Supply and Demand Balance: The copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The 2018 - 2024 China annual supply - demand balance sheet shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [10][13] - Inventory: Exchange inventories remain high, and bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [14][18] 3.3 Market Structure - Processing Fees: Processing fees are recovering slowly [22] - CFTC Position: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24] - Spot - Futures Spread: No specific information provided - Import Profit: No specific information provided - Warehouse Receipts: No specific information provided