大越期货纯碱周报-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 increased by 3.10% compared to the previous week, reaching 1365 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous week [2]. - The supply is at a relatively high level currently, with few device overhauls. Production profits are still differentiated. The expected production will decline in early May as the number of overhauling enterprises increases. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building intentions of downstream enterprises. The inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, with increasing supply and weakening demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The soda ash futures fluctuated at a low level last week, and the spot price rose. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - L利多 Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [5]. - L利空 Factors: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, with decreasing daily melting volume, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract SA2509 was 1365 yuan/ton, up 3.10% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88%. The main basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 26.47% [2][8]. Soda Ash Spot Market - Price: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous week [14]. - Production Profit: The profit of the combined - soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a low level in the same period [17]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 89.44%, showing a stable rebound. The weekly production was 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 41.55 tons, declining from a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 54.88% [20][22][24]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added capacity is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 102.69% [28]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, and the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, with production stabilizing [31][34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 169.10 tons, including 84.05 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a high level in the same historical period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].